Voting at the Political Fault Line |
CONTENTS |
TABLES |
FIGURES |
![]() | 1. Introduction and Background |
![]() | 1. California's Blanket Primary Experiment |
• | MICRO QUESTIONS |
• | MACRO CONSIDERATIONS |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 2. Crossover Voting before the Blanket |
• | ORIGINS AND IMPLICATIONS OF PRIMARY ELECTIONS |
• | WHO WERE THE X-FILERS? CONTEXTS, CANDIDATES, AND CROSSOVER VOTING |
• | WEAVING (AND UNWEAVING) THE BLANKET |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 3. Political Reform via the Initiative Process |
• | INTRODUCTION |
• | VOTER CHOICE OVER INSTITUTIONS |
• | WHAT DETERMINES VOTER CHOICES ABOUT INSTITUTIONAL REFORM? |
• | PROPOSITION 198: CHANGING THE RULES FOR PRIMARY ELECTIONS |
• | HYPOTHESES AND DATA |
• | RESULTS |
• | DISCUSSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 4. Context and Setting |
• | CONFIDENCE RETURNS |
• | ISSUES CHANGE |
• | POLITICAL APATHY |
• | TELEVISION RULES |
• | DEEP DISTRUST |
• | MAKING CHOICES |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 2. Crossover Voting |
![]() | 5. The Causes and Consequences of Crossover Voting in the 1998 California Elections |
• | INTRODUCTION |
• | CONCEPTUALIZING CROSSOVER VOTING |
• | THE MAGNITUDE OF CROSSOVER VOTING |
![]() | CROSSOVER VOTING IN THE PRIMARY CAMPAIGN |
• | The Gubernatorial Nomination Campaign |
• | The Senatorial Nomination Campaign |
![]() | THE IMPACT OF CROSSOVER VOTING ON THE PRIMARY ELECTION'S OUTCOME |
• | The Governor's Race |
• | The U.S. Senate Race |
![]() | THE MOTIVATION BEHIND CROSSOVER VOTING |
• | Theoretical Expectations |
• | Data and Measures |
• | Multivariate Results: The Governor's Race |
• | Multivariate Results: The U.S. Senate Race |
• | Crossing Over Consistently? Synthesizing Electoral and Individual Motivations |
• | THE EFFECT OF THE PRIMARY VOTE ON THE GENERAL ELECTION VOTE: DO CROSSOVERS RETURN HOME? |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 6. Should I Stay or Should I Go? |
• | INTRODUCTION |
• | STUDY DESIGN |
• | CROSSOVER IN ASSEMBLY RACES |
• | MOTIVATIONS FOR CROSSOVER VOTING |
• | CONCLUSION: DID CROSSOVER VOTING MATTER? |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 7. Peeking Under the Blanket |
• | CROSSOVER VOTING: WHAT WE EXPECT |
• | DATA SOURCES |
• | OVERALL PATTERNS OF CROSSOVER VOTING |
• | CROSSOVER VOTING AND STATEWIDE RACES |
![]() | ELECTORAL SCENARIOS: CROSSOVER IN DISTRICT ELECTIONS |
• | Races with Incumbents |
• | Competitive Race |
• | Strategic Sabotage? |
• | THE CONSEQUENCES OF CROSSOVER VOTING |
• | CROSSOVER INTO MINOR-PARTY CONTESTS |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | APPENDIX: DATA AND SAMPLES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 3. Effects of the Blanket Primary |
![]() | 8. Crossing Over When It Counts |
• | RESEARCH DESIGN |
• | EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS |
• | INTERPRETATION OF QUANTITATIVE FINDINGS |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | APPENDIX A: MEASURING CROSSOVER RATES THROUGH ECOLOGICAL INFERENCE |
• | APPENDIX B: CROSSOVER BEHAVIOR IN THE MARCH 2000 PRIMARY |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 9. Candidates, Donors, and Voters in California's Blanket Primary Elections |
![]() | HYPOTHESES ABOUT BLANKET PRIMARIES |
• | Voter Participation |
• | Candidates and Competitiveness in the Spring and Fall |
• | Campaign Finance |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 10. Strategic Voting and Candidate Policy Positions |
• | TWO VIEWS OF PRIMARY ELECTION DYNAMICS |
• | EVIDENCE OF CROSSOVER VOTING, CANDIDATE ENTRY, AND POLICY POSITIONS |
![]() | CANDIDATE MODER ATION IN THE CALIFORNIA BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | Governor's Race |
• | U.S. Senate Race |
• | U.S. House Races |
• | State Assembly Races |
• | SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 11. Openness Begets Opportunity |
• | THE PLAINTIFF'S ARGUMENT AGAINST THE BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | THE HISTORY OF MINOR PARTIES IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARIES |
• | WHAT HAPPENED IN 1998? |
• | THE PEACE AND FREEDOM PARTY'S EXPERIENCE WITH CALIFORNIA'S BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | THE BLANKET PRIMARY AS A STRATEGIC RESOURCE |
• | CANDIDATES SENSE THE OPPORTUNITIES |
• | EXPERIENCE IN WASHINGTON AND ALASKA |
• | WEIGHING PRACTICAL BENEFITS AGAINST PRINCIPLED OPPOSITION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 12. Thinner Ranks |
• | THE EFFECTS OF ELECTION METHODS ON FEMALE CANDIDATES |
• | THE NUMBER OF FEMALE CANDIDATES IN RECENT STATE PRIMARY ELECTIONS |
• | DOES THE BLANKET PRIMARY AFFECT THE TYPE OF FEMALE CANDIDATES WHO RUN? |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | APPENDIX |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 13. Targets of Opportunity |
• | CALIFORNIA'S LATINOS AND POLITICAL POWER |
• | CALIFORNIA'S REPUBLICANS AND THEIR "LATINO PROBLEM" |
• | CALIFORNIA'S LATINOS AND THE BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | DID LATINO CROSSOVER VOTING SHAPE OUTCOMES IN 1998? |
![]() | HERE'S TO THE WINNERS! |
• | The Thirty-Third Assembly District |
• | The Sixtieth Assembly District |
• | The Seventy-Fifth Assembly District |
• | Latino GOP Candidates Who Didn't Make the Cut |
• | GOP to Democratic Crossover |
• | DISCUSSION AND CONCLUDING THOUGHTS |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 14. Candidate Strategy, Voter Response, and Party Cohesion |
![]() | THE POLITICAL INTENTION OF THE PRIMARY SYSTEM |
• | A Problem with Primaries |
• | Blanket Solution" to the Primary Problem |
![]() | VOTERS IN PRIMARY ELECTIONS |
• | Voters in Open and Blanket Primaries |
• | The Incidence of Raiding |
![]() | CANDIDATE STR ATEGY IN PRIMARIES |
• | Candidate Strategy in Open and Blanket Primaries |
• | Electoral Arithmetic for a Moderation-Crossover Strategy |
![]() | TESTING THE EFFECT OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | Candidate Strategy and Voter Response |
• | WHO CROSSES OVER? |
![]() | PROGRAMMATIC EFFECTS OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY: A SPECULATION |
• | The Meaning of Moderation |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 4. Conclusions and Implications |
![]() | 15. The Blanket Primary in the Courts |
• | THE CONSTITUTIONAL STATUS OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND PRIMARY ELECTIONS BEFORE JONES |
• | THE DISTRICT COURT DECISION IN JONES |
• | THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN JONES |
![]() | THE AFTERMATH OF JONES |
• | The Implications for Other Types of Primaries |
• | Party Consent and Initiative versus Legislative Lawmaking |
• | State Interests in Expanding Participation and Enhancing Representation |
• | Minor and Major Parties |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
• | CASES CITED |
![]() | 16. Strategies and Rules |
• | OPEN PRIMARIES AND THE McCAIN CANDIDACY |
• | THE FORTUITY OF THE SCHEDULE |
• | MICHIGAN: THE CASE OF THE HIJACKED ELECTION? |
• | CALIFORNIA IN 2000: A NEW EXPERIMENT |
• | CONCLUSION |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
![]() | 17. Conclusion |
• | IMPACT OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | MOTIVES AND THE ADOPTION OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY |
• | NOTES |
• | REFERENCES |
CONTRIBUTORS |
INDEX |