Voting at the Political Fault Line
  CONTENTS
  TABLES
  FIGURES

 collapse section1. Introduction and Background
 collapse section1. California's Blanket Primary Experiment
 •MICRO QUESTIONS
 •MACRO CONSIDERATIONS
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section2. Crossover Voting before the Blanket
 •ORIGINS AND IMPLICATIONS OF PRIMARY ELECTIONS
 •WHO WERE THE X-FILERS? CONTEXTS, CANDIDATES, AND CROSSOVER VOTING
 •WEAVING (AND UNWEAVING) THE BLANKET
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section3. Political Reform via the Initiative Process
 •INTRODUCTION
 •VOTER CHOICE OVER INSTITUTIONS
 •WHAT DETERMINES VOTER CHOICES ABOUT INSTITUTIONAL REFORM?
 •PROPOSITION 198: CHANGING THE RULES FOR PRIMARY ELECTIONS
 •HYPOTHESES AND DATA
 •RESULTS
 •DISCUSSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section4. Context and Setting
 •CONFIDENCE RETURNS
 •ISSUES CHANGE
 •POLITICAL APATHY
 •TELEVISION RULES
 •DEEP DISTRUST
 •MAKING CHOICES
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES

 collapse section2. Crossover Voting
 collapse section5. The Causes and Consequences of Crossover Voting in the 1998 California Elections
 •INTRODUCTION
 •CONCEPTUALIZING CROSSOVER VOTING
 •THE MAGNITUDE OF CROSSOVER VOTING
 collapse sectionCROSSOVER VOTING IN THE PRIMARY CAMPAIGN
 •The Gubernatorial Nomination Campaign
 •The Senatorial Nomination Campaign
 collapse sectionTHE IMPACT OF CROSSOVER VOTING ON THE PRIMARY ELECTION'S OUTCOME
 •The Governor's Race
 •The U.S. Senate Race
 collapse sectionTHE MOTIVATION BEHIND CROSSOVER VOTING
 •Theoretical Expectations
 •Data and Measures
 •Multivariate Results: The Governor's Race
 •Multivariate Results: The U.S. Senate Race
 •Crossing Over Consistently? Synthesizing Electoral and Individual Motivations
 •THE EFFECT OF THE PRIMARY VOTE ON THE GENERAL ELECTION VOTE: DO CROSSOVERS RETURN HOME?
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section6. Should I Stay or Should I Go?
 •INTRODUCTION
 •STUDY DESIGN
 •CROSSOVER IN ASSEMBLY RACES
 •MOTIVATIONS FOR CROSSOVER VOTING
 •CONCLUSION: DID CROSSOVER VOTING MATTER?
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section7. Peeking Under the Blanket
 •CROSSOVER VOTING: WHAT WE EXPECT
 •DATA SOURCES
 •OVERALL PATTERNS OF CROSSOVER VOTING
 •CROSSOVER VOTING AND STATEWIDE RACES
 collapse sectionELECTORAL SCENARIOS: CROSSOVER IN DISTRICT ELECTIONS
 •Races with Incumbents
 •Competitive Race
 •Strategic Sabotage?
 •THE CONSEQUENCES OF CROSSOVER VOTING
 •CROSSOVER INTO MINOR-PARTY CONTESTS
 •CONCLUSION
 •APPENDIX: DATA AND SAMPLES
 •REFERENCES

 collapse section3. Effects of the Blanket Primary
 collapse section8. Crossing Over When It Counts
 •RESEARCH DESIGN
 •EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
 •INTERPRETATION OF QUANTITATIVE FINDINGS
 •CONCLUSION
 •APPENDIX A: MEASURING CROSSOVER RATES THROUGH ECOLOGICAL INFERENCE
 •APPENDIX B: CROSSOVER BEHAVIOR IN THE MARCH 2000 PRIMARY
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section9. Candidates, Donors, and Voters in California's Blanket Primary Elections
 collapse sectionHYPOTHESES ABOUT BLANKET PRIMARIES
 •Voter Participation
 •Candidates and Competitiveness in the Spring and Fall
 •Campaign Finance
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section10. Strategic Voting and Candidate Policy Positions
 •TWO VIEWS OF PRIMARY ELECTION DYNAMICS
 •EVIDENCE OF CROSSOVER VOTING, CANDIDATE ENTRY, AND POLICY POSITIONS
 collapse sectionCANDIDATE MODER ATION IN THE CALIFORNIA BLANKET PRIMARY
 •Governor's Race
 •U.S. Senate Race
 •U.S. House Races
 •State Assembly Races
 •SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section11. Openness Begets Opportunity
 •THE PLAINTIFF'S ARGUMENT AGAINST THE BLANKET PRIMARY
 •THE HISTORY OF MINOR PARTIES IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARIES
 •WHAT HAPPENED IN 1998?
 •THE PEACE AND FREEDOM PARTY'S EXPERIENCE WITH CALIFORNIA'S BLANKET PRIMARY
 •THE BLANKET PRIMARY AS A STRATEGIC RESOURCE
 •CANDIDATES SENSE THE OPPORTUNITIES
 •EXPERIENCE IN WASHINGTON AND ALASKA
 •WEIGHING PRACTICAL BENEFITS AGAINST PRINCIPLED OPPOSITION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section12. Thinner Ranks
 •THE EFFECTS OF ELECTION METHODS ON FEMALE CANDIDATES
 •THE NUMBER OF FEMALE CANDIDATES IN RECENT STATE PRIMARY ELECTIONS
 •DOES THE BLANKET PRIMARY AFFECT THE TYPE OF FEMALE CANDIDATES WHO RUN?
 •CONCLUSION
 •APPENDIX
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section13. Targets of Opportunity
 •CALIFORNIA'S LATINOS AND POLITICAL POWER
 •CALIFORNIA'S REPUBLICANS AND THEIR "LATINO PROBLEM"
 •CALIFORNIA'S LATINOS AND THE BLANKET PRIMARY
 •DID LATINO CROSSOVER VOTING SHAPE OUTCOMES IN 1998?
 collapse sectionHERE'S TO THE WINNERS!
 •The Thirty-Third Assembly District
 •The Sixtieth Assembly District
 •The Seventy-Fifth Assembly District
 •Latino GOP Candidates Who Didn't Make the Cut
 •GOP to Democratic Crossover
 •DISCUSSION AND CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section14. Candidate Strategy, Voter Response,  and Party Cohesion
 collapse sectionTHE POLITICAL INTENTION OF THE PRIMARY SYSTEM
 •A Problem with Primaries
 •Blanket Solution" to the Primary Problem
 collapse sectionVOTERS IN PRIMARY ELECTIONS
 •Voters in Open and Blanket Primaries
 •The Incidence of Raiding
 collapse sectionCANDIDATE STR ATEGY IN PRIMARIES
 •Candidate Strategy in Open and Blanket Primaries
 •Electoral Arithmetic for a Moderation-Crossover Strategy
 collapse sectionTESTING THE EFFECT OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY
 •Candidate Strategy and Voter Response
 •WHO CROSSES OVER?
 collapse sectionPROGRAMMATIC EFFECTS OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY: A SPECULATION
 •The Meaning of Moderation
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES

 collapse section4. Conclusions and Implications
 collapse section15. The Blanket Primary in the Courts
 •THE CONSTITUTIONAL STATUS OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND PRIMARY ELECTIONS BEFORE JONES
 •THE DISTRICT COURT DECISION IN JONES
 •THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN JONES
 collapse sectionTHE AFTERMATH OF JONES
 •The Implications for Other Types of Primaries
 •Party Consent and Initiative versus Legislative Lawmaking
 •State Interests in Expanding Participation and Enhancing Representation
 •Minor and Major Parties
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 •CASES CITED
 collapse section16. Strategies and Rules
 •OPEN PRIMARIES AND THE McCAIN CANDIDACY
 •THE FORTUITY OF THE SCHEDULE
 •MICHIGAN: THE CASE OF THE HIJACKED ELECTION?
 •CALIFORNIA IN 2000: A NEW EXPERIMENT
 •CONCLUSION
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES
 collapse section17. Conclusion
 •IMPACT OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY
 •MOTIVES AND THE ADOPTION OF THE BLANKET PRIMARY
 •NOTES
 •REFERENCES

  CONTRIBUTORS
  INDEX
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