Data and Measures

To test the hypotheses spelled out above, we estimate multivariate models of crossover voting. To ensure an adequate number of cases for analysis, we rely on the pooled Field poll dataset. The choice of dependent variable again depends on whether we define crossover voting as voting against

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one's party identification or party registration. Since an analysis of motivations is in essence an examination of the psychology of voters, crossover voting is measured as defecting from one's party identification. Thus, the dependent variable is coded one if the respondent intends to vote for a candidate in a party other than the one with which he or she identifies, and zero otherwise. Among our predictors, gender; ethnic identification as black, Latino, or Asian; and union membership are dichotomous variables.^[17] Religiosity is measured with two dummy variables, one for Protestants and one for Catholics. Age is the number of years, education a ten-point scale, and income a five-point scale. (Detailed descriptions of variable coding are provided in the appendix to this chapter.)

Ideology is measured by a seven-point self-identification scale, with a score of one representing a strong conservative and seven a strong liberal (thus we refer to the measure as "liberalism"). Strength of partisanship is measured by "folding" the standard seven-point party identification scale at the mid-point to create a four-category measure, where one indicates independents, and four indicates strong partisans.^[18] The only consistently available indicators of issue positions in our dataset are questions about two highly contested ballot propositions on the June ballot, Propositions 226 and 227. Proposition 226 would have mandated that unions obtain the permission of all members before spending their dues for political purposes. Proposition 227 radically limited bilingual education programs in California public schools. Proposition 226 failed by a narrow margin, while Proposition 227 passed easily. Although this interpretation is somewhat crude, we construe a vote for either of these propositions as conservative, and thus more congruent with a vote for a Republican candidate.^[19]