Theoretical Expectations
The analysis undertaken here assumes that most crossover voting is sincere or possibly hedging. Essentially, we propose that crossover voting will be more likely among respondents with attitudinal or demographic attributes that deviate from the core constituencies of their party—for example, a conservative Democrat or a female Republican. However, it is important to point out that crossover voting under these circumstances could reflect either sincere voting or hedging. A conservative Democrat could cross over because he or she genuinely prefers the views of the Republican candidate. Likewise, because this conservative Democrat sits somewhere "in between" the two parties, he or she could also hedge to ensure that if the Democrat lost the general election, the Republican victor would be entirely palatable. Given these preliminaries, we can then ask, What are the likely characteristics of crossover voters?
One obvious hypothesis is that the strength of party identification should influence the likelihood of crossover voting. Strong partisans should be less likely to cross over than weak partisans. Similarly, crossover voting should be more likely among those whose ideology is out-of-step with the dominant outlook of their party. Thus, conservative Democrats should cross over to the Republican party at a higher rate than do liberal Democrats. In the same vein, crossover voting might also have some specific issue content. For example, pro-choice Republicans might have an incentive to vote for a Democratic candidate if the Republican candidates are explicitly pro-life (as Dan Lungren was in the gubernatorial primary).[15]
It is quite likely that ideology, partisanship, and policy preferences do not exhaust the reasons for crossover voting. Because demographic variables may function as proxies for political values and interests, they may affect crossover voting as well. In the 1998 California elections, gender may have played a role, as numerous pundits speculated about the attractiveness of Democrats like Jane Harman and Barbara Boxer to female Republicans. The presence of female candidates thus may cue gender considerations otherwise absent in an all-male race.[16] However, the effects of gender might vary across party, "pushing" Republican women to cross over more than
Race and ethnicity could also have impacts on crossover voting. Blacks and, to a lesser extent, Latinos are predominantly Democratic constituencies. Black or Latino Democrats should be less likely to cross over than their white counterparts, especially because the California Republican party is often identified with conservative stances on affirmative action and immigration that tend to alienate racial minorities. The ethnic background of candidates themselves might make voters' ethnic ties even more salient. However, in June 1998, only one nonwhite, Matt Fong, was a major candidate. It is nevertheless possible that Asian voters in particular were attracted to Fong.
Similarly, given that high income is generally associated with a Republican vote, rich Democrats may be more likely to cross over to the Republican party, and rich Republicans less likely to cross over to the Democratic party. In the current electoral climate, religiosity may also benefit Republican candidates. Union membership could function the same way for Democrats, especially in an election featuring the anti-union Proposition 26.
Two variables, age and education, do not generate clear directional hypotheses. Age could have a consistently negative impact on the propensity to cross over regardless of party, if one assumes that partisan loyalties, whether Democratic or Republican, ossify with age. However, to the extent that age is associated with increasing conservatism, as is the conventional wisdom, it should associate negatively with crossover voting among Republicans, but positively with crossover voting among Democrats. As for the influence of formal education, one hypothesis is that it will have a consistently negative impact on crossover voting, since educated voters could be more dedicated partisans. However, it is probably also true that educated voters more diligently consume political information, and thus are likely to learn about and perhaps support candidates in the opposing party. Furthermore, educated voters' greater cognitive capacities may provide the wherewithal to vote strategically. Education could also have a varying impact on crossover voting among Democrats and Republicans if it is generally associated with a loyalty to one party or another—e.g., if more education leads to a stronger Democratic party identification.