1. The Congressional Budget Office projected a FY83 deficit, under current policies, of $157 billion, total spending at $809 billion, and spending on programs other than defense, interest, and social security totaling $318 billion. See CBO, "Baseline Budget Projections for Fiscal Years 1983-87," February 1982, pp. 40, 45. For deficit projections, see CBO, "An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1983," February 1982, p. xiv. [BACK]

2. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 353. [BACK]

3. Jonathan Fuerbringer, "Stockman Defends Reagan's Proposal and Size of Deficit," New York Times, February 8, 1982, pp. A1, B13. [BACK]

4. Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 1983 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982), pp. 3-4. [BACK]

5. Ibid., pp. 3-14. [BACK]

6. Ibid., pp. 3-12. [BACK]

7. Congressional Budget Office, "An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1983," p. 7. [BACK]

8. Martin Tolchin, "Budget Brings Attacks in Congress From Republicans and Democrats," New York Times, February 7, 1982, p. 28. [BACK]

9. Martin Tolchin, "Baker Tries to Quiet Storm Raised by GOP on Deficit," New York Times, February 9, 1982, p. B14. [BACK]

10. Edward Cowan, "Economists Voice Doubts on Budget," New York Times, February 9, 1982, p. B14. [BACK]

11. Charles Alexander, "Roadblocks to Recovery," Time, February 22, 1982, pp. 36-38. [BACK]

12. Peter McGrath et al., "The Deficit Rebellion," Newsweek, February 22, 1982, pp. 22-24. [BACK]

13. Alexander, "Roadblocks to Recovery"; McGrath et al., "Deficit Rebellion"; Martin Tolchin, "Reagan Aides Hear Budget Attacked From Both Parties," New York Times, February 10, 1982, p. A1. [BACK]

14. Steven V. Roberts, "Voters Reported Less Confident of Reagan Plan," New York Times, February 21, 1982, p. A1. [BACK]

15. Social psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide two good examples. First, "most respondents in a sample of undergraduates refused to stake $10 on the toss of a coin if they stood to win less than $30." Second, in "a situation in which an individual is forced to choose between an 85 percent chance to lose $1,000 ... and a sure loss of $800, a large majority of people express a preference for the gamble over the sure loss." Even though, on average, they will do worse that way. See their "Choices, Values, and Frames," American Psychologist 39, no. 4 (April 1984), pp. 341-50; quote on p. 342. [BACK]

16. Seth S. King, "Labor Challenges Reagan on Budget," New York Times, February 16, 1982, p. A1. [BACK]

17. Edward Cowan, "Business Leaders Object to Deficits in Reagan Budget," New York Times, March 4, 1982, pp. A1, D15; "Euphoria Ends," Time, May 17, 1982, p. 56. [BACK]

18. "Bubbles in the Red Ink," Time, March 8, 1982, p. 17; Martin Tolchin, "G.O.P. Leaders Tell President His Plan on Budget is Dead," New York Times, February 24, 1982, pp. A1, A14. [BACK]

19. James Kelly, "The Zigzag Art of Politics," Time, March 15, 1982, pp. 15-16; Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 349-50. [BACK]

20. Ed Magnuson, "Playing It Cool or Frozen in Ice?" Time, March 22, 1982, p. 34. [BACK]

21. George J. Church, "A Season of Scare Talk," Time, March 15, 1982, pp. 12-14. [BACK]

22. Jane Bryant Quinn, "Reagan Against Himself," Newsweek, March 1, 1982, p. 66. [BACK]

23. See Martin Anderson, Revolution (San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988), p. 211. [BACK]

24. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 351. [BACK]

25. Ibid., pp. 348-53. [BACK]

26. George J. Church, "Trying to Be Mr. Nice Guy," Time, April 5, 1982, pp. 13-14. [BACK]

27. Descriptions of the "Gang" are based on interviews and on documents made available by staff for a participant, who kept a notebook on these events. [BACK]

28. COLAs would be limited to 4 percent and occur every fifteen months instead of every twelve. These provisions, according to the estimates used, would yield a 7.5 percent cut in the benefits received by an individual over the period from July 1, 1982, through December 31, 1985. [BACK]

29. "Domenici Calls Budget Pact Task of O'Neill and Reagan," Associated Press Wire Service, New York Times, April 9, 1982, p. A15. [BACK]

30. Martin Tolchin, "A Month's Budget Talks Finally Came to Naught," New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A17. [BACK]

31. Howell Raines, "Reagan Optimistic That Budget Talks Will End Impasse," New York Times, April 6, 1982, pp. A1, A17. [BACK]

32. Howell Raines, "White House Hints Accord on Budget by Tax Surcharge," New York Times, April 15, 1982, pp. A1, D20; Kenneth Nobel, "Baker Voices Hope of Gaining Accord on Tax Surcharge," New York Times, April 19, 1982, pp. A1, A19; Ed Magnuson, "Stumbling to a Showdown," Time, April 26, 1982, pp. 10-14; "Nudging the Budget," Newsweek, April 26, 1982, p. 35. [BACK]

33. Transcript, New York Times, April 17, 1982, p. A9. [BACK]

34. Peter McGrath et al., "In Quest of a Pax Reaganomica," Newsweek, May 3, 1982, pp. 20-21; Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 361. [BACK]

36. These numbers are derived from worksheets of participants. [BACK]

37. Jerry Adler et al., "The 'Extra Mile' to Nowhere," Newsweek, May 10, 1982, pp. 38-42. [BACK]

38. Tolchin, "A Month's Budget Talks Finally Came to Naught." [BACK]

39. Transcript, New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A16. [BACK]

40. Transcript of Bolling's reply to Reagan on behalf of Democrats in Congress, New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A18. [BACK]

41. Steven V. Roberts, "Senate Unit Begins Drafting a Budget," New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A18. [BACK]

42. Steven V. Roberts, "House Democrats Emphasizing Unity," New York Times, May 2, 1982, p. 26. [BACK]

43. Martin Tolchin, "Domenici Presents Own Budget Plan," New York Times, May 5, 1982, Section 2, p. 11. [BACK]

44. Martin Tolchin, "White House and GOP Leaders Agree on Budget Proposal for '83," New York Times, May 6, 1982, pp. A1, B13. [BACK]

45. Ibid. [BACK]

46. Martin Tolchin, "President Pledges to Push Campaign for Budget Plan," New York Times, May 7, 1982, pp. A1, D18. [BACK]

47. Ibid. [BACK]

48. Adam Clymer, "Talk of Social Security Cutbacks Causes Alarm in Ranks of G.O.P.,"New York Times, May 8, 1982, p. A10; Martin Tolchin, "Social Security Issue Causing Problems for New Budget," New York Times, May 8, 1982, pp. A1, A9. [BACK]

49. Martin Tolchin, "G.O.P. in House Opposes Budget of Senate Panel," New York Times, May 12, 1982, pp. A1, A24. [BACK]

50. Congressional Quarterly Almanac 1982, Vol. 38 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1983), p. 187 (hereafter CQA 1982). [BACK]

51. Tom Morganthau et al., "The Third Rail of Politics," Newsweek, May 24, 1982, pp. 24-26. [BACK]

52. CQA 1982, pp. 191-92. [BACK]

53. "GOP puts aside bipartisan stance on 1983 budget," National Journal, May 8, 1982, pp. 799, 826. [BACK]

54. Jane Perlez, "Moderate Republicans Feel They Control House Passage of Budget," New York Times, May 11, 1982, p. A17. [BACK]

55. CQA 1982, pp. 190-91. [BACK]

56. Richard S. Cohen, "The Fiscal 1983 Budget Equation: Election + Recession = Frustration," National Journal, May 29, 1982, pp. 944-48. [BACK]

57. CQA 1982, pp. 192-93. [BACK]

58. "House Raising on the Hill," Time, May 31, 1982, p. 16. [BACK]

59. George J. Church, "Chaos Aplenty, but No Budget," Time, June 7, 1982, p. 18; Tom Morganthau and Gloria Borger, "Anyone for a Budget?" Newsweek, June 7, 1982, pp. 31-32. [BACK]

60. CQA 1982, pp. 192-93. [BACK]

61. "GOP in Best Position to Win on 1983 Budget," National Journal, June 5, 1982, p. 1021. [BACK]

62. CQA 1982, p. 193. [BACK]

63. Church, "Chaos Aplenty." [BACK]

64. John Herbers, "President Denounces Budget Process," New York Times, May 29, 1982, p. 44. [BACK]

65. See comments by Senator Bill Bradley, Newsweek, May 3, 1982, p. 21; comments of Peter G. Peterson and five former secretaries of the Treasury in Time, June 7, 1982, p. 18. [BACK]

66. See Robert J. Samuelson, "The Interest in Rates," National Journal, June 5, 1982, p. 1015. [BACK]

67. Steven V. Roberts, "President Rejects Bipartisan Budget," New York Times, June 3, 1982, Section 2, p. 15. [BACK]

68. Ibid. [BACK]

69. Martin Tolchin, "GOP Budget Wins Approval in House by Vote of 219-206," New York Times, June 11, 1982, p. A1. [BACK]

70. Ibid. [BACK]

71. Ibid., and CQA 1982, pp. 195-96. [BACK]

72. Walter Isaacson, "Breaking the Budget Logjam," Time, June 21, 1982, p. 37 [BACK]

73. Martin Tolchin, "Conferees Agree on Budget for '83 Along GOP Lines," New York Times, June 18, 1982, pp. A1, D17. For conference details, see CQA 1982, pp. 196-99; and Richard E. Cohen, "Congress's 'House of Cards' Budget May Be Constructed on Quicksand," National Journal, June 26, 1982, pp. 1120-26. [BACK]

74. Steven R. Weisman, "Reagan's Risky Decision," New York Times, February 7, 1982, pp. 1, 30. [BACK]

75. "Business may be victim of congressional drive to increase taxes," National Journal, February 27, 1982, pp. 355, 389. [BACK]

76. Ibid. [BACK]

77. Timothy B. Clark, "Lobbyists at Work: Tax Lobbyists Scrambling in the Dark to Fight Taxes That Hit Their Clients," National Journal, May 22, 1982, pp. 896-901. [BACK]

78. Ibid.; and Timothy B. Clark, "Tax-Raising Proposals Off and Running But Few Generate Strong Support," National Journal, April 3, 1982, pp. 576-80. [BACK]

79. See Economist, "Back on the Ground," April 3, 1982, pp. 79-80. [BACK]

80. Clark, "Tax-Raising Proposals Off and Running." [BACK]

81. Ibid.; and CQA 1982, p. 34. [BACK]

82. Clark, "Lobbyists at Work: Tax Lobbyists Scrambling in the Dark." [BACK]

83. Richard E. Cohen, "Dole's Toughest Test as Finance Chief—Pushing a Tax Hike Through the Senate," National Journal, June 19, 1982, pp. 1089-93. [BACK]

84. The surcharge idea that arose in the Gang of 17 negotiations had been abandoned. [BACK]

85. CQA 1982, pp. 34-35; "GOP tax hike package takes edge off Democrats' thunder," National Journal, July 3, 1982, pp. 1203, 1229. [BACK]

86. Peter McGrath et al., "A No-Fingerprints Tax Bill," Newsweek, August 9, 1982, pp. 16-17. [BACK]

87. See, e.g., Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 356. [BACK]

88. See, for example, Donald Regan, For the Record (New York: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1988), pp. 182-84. [BACK]

89. Steven R. Weisman, "Reagan Presses for Tax Increase in Western Trip," New York Times, August 12, 1982, p. A1. [BACK]

90. CQA 1982, pp. 37-38. [BACK]

91. Rich Thomas, "Why Reagan Switched," Newsweek, August 23, 1982, p. 27. [BACK]

92. Karen W. Arenson, "Measure Is Reformers' Delight," New York Times, August 17, 1982, Section 4, p. 17. [BACK]

93. "Transcript of the President's Televised Speech on Tax Policy," New York Times, August 17, 1982, Section 4, p. 16. [BACK]

94. Walter Isaacson, "Scoring on a Reverse," Time, August 30, 1982, pp. 14-18. [BACK]

95. Ibid. provides a good summary. The administration and Chamber virtually went to war. Other business lobbyists described the Chamber's anti-TEFRA campaign as "really vicious," while some in the Chamber who opposed TEFRA claim that the administration tried to get the Chamber's board to fire its president. [BACK]

96. CQA 1982, p. 39. [BACK]

97. See CQA 1982, pp. 29-39; Isaacson, "Scoring on a Reverse"; Melinda Beck et al., "Winning One for the Gipper," Newsweek, August 30, 1982, pp. 24-28; Karen Arenson, "Congress Approves Bill to Raise $983 Billion in Taxes," pp. A1, D14; Hedrich Smith, "Reagan's Big Victory: Passage of the Tax-Rise Bill Vindicates Major Political Gamble by President," p. D14; and David Shribman, "How Bill's Momentum Swept House," p. D14; all in New York Times, August 20, 1982. [BACK]