1. Phillip Shabecoff, "Economic Plan Rejected by Labor Chiefs as Unfair," and Bernard Weinraub, "Coalition to Oppose Cuts in Aid to Poor," New York Times, February 20, 1981, p. A10. [BACK]

2. "Labor Department: It's in Business's Hands Now," National Journal, April 25, 1981, pp. 726-28. [BACK]

3. "The Budget-Cutters' Ball," New Republic, February 28, 1981, pp. 5-8. [BACK]

4. George J. Church, "The Unkindest Cuts of All," Time, February 23, 1981, pp. 12-14. [BACK]

5. Judith Miller, "A Liberal Democrat Finds Constituents Demanding Budget Cuts," New York Times, February 17, 1981, p. A14. [BACK]

6. Martin Tolchin, "Democrats to Seek Significant Changes in Tax-Cut Proposal," New York Times, February 21, 1981, p. A1. [BACK]

7. Ibid. [BACK]

8. Ed Magnuson, "A Bonanza for Defense," Time, March 16, 1981, pp. 26, 31. [BACK]

9. Elizabeth Drew, "A Reporter at Large: The Democrats," New Yorker, March 22, 1982, pp. 130-45. For the basic story on Senate reconciliation, see Congressional Quarterly Almanac 1981, Vol. 37 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1982), pp. 250-51 (hereafter CQA 1981); on Republican unity, see Allen Schick, "How the Budget Was Won and Lost," in Norman J. Ornstein, ed., President and Congress: Assessing Reagan's First Year (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1982), pp. 14-43. [BACK]

10. Greider, Education of David Stockman, pp. 32-33. [BACK]

11. Richard E. Cohen, "Budget Battle Takes to the Trenches—But Who Ever Said It Would Be Easy?" National Journal, April 18, 1981, pp. 645-48. [BACK]

12. "New Beginnings, Old Anxieties," Time, February 2, 1981, pp. 22-23; Adam Clymer, "Public Prefers a Balanced Budget to Large Cut in Taxes, Poll Shows," New York Times, February 3, 1981, p. A1. [BACK]

13. "The Budget: Bumps Ahead," Newsweek, March 30, 1981, pp. 23-24. [BACK]

14. Quoted by Steven S. Smith, "The Congress: Budget Battles of 1981: The Role of the Majority Party Leadership," in Allan P. Sindler, ed., American Politics and Public Policy (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1982), pp. 43-78. [BACK]

15. Steven V. Roberts, "Critical Approach to Reagan's Budget is Urged by Wright," New York Times, March 13, 1981, p. A1. [BACK]

16. Text in New York Times, April 9, 1981, p. B12. [BACK]

17. Smith, "The Congress," p. 54. [BACK]

18. See Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 107-25. [BACK]

19. Ed Magnuson, "Six Shots at Nation's Heart," Time, April 13, 1981, pp. 14-38; and Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 121. [BACK]

20. Ibid. [BACK]

21. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 124; also Peter Goldman, "The First Hundred Days," Newsweek, May 4, 1981, pp. 22-23. [BACK]

22. Peter Behr and Caroline Atkinson, "Economic Advisers Set to Give Reagan Grim Projections," Washington Post, January 6, 1981, pp. 1A, 4A. See also Albert R. Hunt, "Stockman's Hour," Wall Street Journal, February 19, 1981, pp. 1, 18; and Robert W. Merry, "Changing Ways," Wall Street Journal, February 4, 1981, p. 1. [BACK]

23. Hunt, "Stockman's Hour," Wall Street Journal. [BACK]

24. Robert J. Samuelson, "Reagan's Tax Package—Is a Bill in the Hand Worth Two in the Bush?" National Journal, February 28, 1981, pp. 340-45. [BACK]

25. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 132. [BACK]

26. Hobart Rowen, "Put Budget-Cutting First, Burns Urges Committee," Washington Post, January 22, 1981, pp. B1, B6. [BACK]

27. Stein, Presidential Economics, p. 269. [BACK]

28. Steven R. Weisman, "Reaganomics and the President's Men," New York Times, October 24, 1982, p. 28. See also Elizabeth Drew, "Reporter at Large: First Year," New Yorker, January 4, 1982, pp. 38-62. [BACK]

29. Weisman, "Reaganomics and the President's Men," New York Times. [BACK]

30. Richard E. Cohen, "The Senator from Tennessee May Hold the Key to Reagan's Economic Plans," National Journal, April 11, 1981, pp. 596-600. [BACK]

31. Ibid. [BACK]

32. "The Democrats Begin to Regroup," Newsweek, March 9, 1981, p. 29; Albert R. Hunt and Dennis Farney, "A Consensus to Cut: Budget Paring Mood Spreads on Capitol Hill, Bodes Well for Reagan," Wall Street Journal, March 10, 1981, pp. 1, 16. [BACK]

33. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 161. [BACK]

34. Ibid., p. 162. Our sources convince us that Stockman misunderstood Howard Baker's position. [BACK]

35. Ibid. [BACK]

36. Greider, Education of David Stockman, pp. 30-31. [BACK]

37. Martin Tolchin, "Senate Rejects Bid to Restore Welfare Funds," New York Times, April 1, 1981, p. A24. [BACK]

38. Martin Tolchin, "Democrats, Eying Elections, Maneuver on Budget Cuts," New York Times, April 2, 1981, p. B1. [BACK]

39. Daniel Elazar, American Federalism: A View from the States, 2d ed. (New York: Crowell, 1972). [BACK]

40. Louis Dumont, Homo Hierarchicus: The Caste System and Its Implications (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980). [BACK]

41. For a description of the administration's oil policy, see CQA 1981, pp. 248-50; Martin Tolchin, "Democrats' Budget Tops Reagan Figure on Social Programs," April 7, 1981, pp. Al, B8; and "Democratic Budget Proposal," April 8, 1981, p. A24, New York Times. [BACK]

42. Harry Anderson et al., "The Remaking of a Budget," Newsweek, April 20, 1981, p. 39. [BACK]

43. Budget Committee Democrats claimed a new technique, Deferred Enrollment, would enforce the reductions on appropriations. The administration was properly skeptical. Robert Reischauer, "The Congressional Budget Process," in Gregory Mills and John Palmer, eds., Federal Budget Policy in the 1980s (Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute, 1984), pp. 385-413. [BACK]

44. Richard E. Cohen, "Democratic Dilemma—No Credit If They Work With Reagan, Blame If They Don't," National Journal, March 21, 1981, pp. 482-86; "What `Reconciliation' Means," Newsweek, March 2, 1981, p. 32. [BACK]

45. Reischauer, "Congressional Budget Process," p. 399. [BACK]

46. In April, ninety-one-day T-bills were running about 13.6 percent; for the year to average out at 8.9 percent would require some heroic assumptions, such as an average rate of about 5 percent for the second half of the year. Actually, the final figure was just over 14 percent. [BACK]

47. Martin Tolchin, "Senate Panel, 12-8, Rejects Own Plan for Budget in 1982," New York Times, April 10, 1981, pp. Al, D3; Tolchin, "Facing Up to Budget Reality," New York Times, April 11, 1981, pp. 1, 12; Anderson et al., "The Remaking of a Budget." [BACK]

48. Editorial pages, New York Times, April 16, 1981. [BACK]

49. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 166. [BACK]

50. Martin Tolchin, "Democrats in Congress Weighing a Proposal to Balance the Budget," New York Times, April 29, 1981, pp. Al, A23; CQA 1981, pp. 249, 252. [BACK]

51. Greider, Education of David Stockman, p. 34; Steven R. Weisman, "Reagan Backs Plan on Budget By Group of House Democrats," New York Times, April 22, 1981, p. Al. [BACK]

52. S. William Green, "In Search of Fairness," reprint from Congressional Record, Vol. 128, no. 90, July 14, 1982. [BACK]

53. Martin Tolchin, "Democrats in House Add Military Funds to Proposed Budget," New York Times, April 30, 1981, pp. Al, A26. [BACK]

54. Steven V. Roberts, "Some Democrats Accuse O'Neill of a Lack of Strong Leadership," New York Times, April 30, 1981, p. A26. [BACK]

55. Ed Magnuson, "Reagan's Big Win," Time, May 18, 1981, pp. 14-16; Peter Goldman, "The Second Hundred Days," Newsweek, May 11, 1981, pp. 22-24; Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 153-54; and Paul Craig Roberts, "Making Deficits a Scapegoat for Inflation," New York Times, p. A31. [BACK]

56. See Steven V. Roberts, "Congressmen Hear Voters, But Message Is Not Clear," New York Times, April 26, 1981, p. 18; and other stories on Jones and Shannon during the month. [BACK]

57. Adam Clymer, "Rise in U.S. Optimism on Economy Bolsters Reagan Support, Poll Hints," April 30, 1981, pp. A1, B10. [BACK]

58. "Majority in Poll Support Reagan on Economic Package," New York Times, April 25, 1981, Associated Press wire story, p. A6. [BACK]

59. Steven V. Roberts, "44 Democrats Are Objects of White House Attentions," New York Times, May 1, 1981, p. A19. [BACK]

60. Ibid. [BACK]

61. Kenneth H. Bacon, "Reagan's Regan," Wall Street Journal, April 30, 1981, pp. 1, 17. [BACK]

62. Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 153-54; Greider, Education of David Stockman, p. 36. [BACK]

63. Green, "In Search of Fairness." [BACK]

64. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 176. [BACK]

65. Hedrick Smith, "Second Honeymoon," New York Times, April 29, 1981, p. A22. [BACK]

67. Ed Magnuson, "Reagan's Budget Battle," Time, May 11, 1981, pp. 16-18; speech transcript, New York Times, April 29, 1981, p. A22. [BACK]

68. Martin Tolchin, "Democrats in House Add Military Funds to Proposed Budget," New York Times, April 30, 1981, pp. Al, A26. [BACK]

69. Terence Smith, "Despite Doubts, Byrd Will Back Reagan's Budget," New York Times, May 3, 1981, p. Al; James Kelly, "Now Comes the Hard Part," Time, May 4, 1981, pp. 17-18; and George J. Church, "Flying into Trouble," Time, May 4, 1981, pp. 14-16. [BACK]

70. CQA 1981, p. 253. [BACK]

71. Peter Goldman, "The Reagan Steamroller," Newsweek, May 18, 1981, p. 39. [BACK]

72. Peter Goldman, "The Second Hundred Days," Newsweek, May 11, 1981, pp. 22-24. [BACK]

73. Greider, Education of David Stockman, p. 35. [BACK]

74. Kenneth H. Bacon, "Strange Welcome: Wall Street is Greeting President's Program with Jitters, Turmoil," Wall Street Journal, May 7, 1981, pp. 1, 13. See also Lindley H. Clark, Jr., "Slowing Down: Analysts See Economy Flattening Out Now, Expanding in 2nd Half," Wall Street Journal, April 16, 1981, pp. 1, 19; and Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Indicators, various months in 1981. [BACK]

75. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 181. [BACK]

76. Ibid., pp. 184-85. [BACK]

77. Ibid., pp. 187-88. [BACK]

78. In his book, Stockman says the real problem with altering social security policy was making the change effective immediately. He says that "detail got lost in the shuffle." Yet, all the budget-savings figures depended on when that change began; Stockman had long wanted to make it immediate; by his own report, he objected to other packages that did not yield savings fast enough. In short, Stockman is fudging. If he didn't know the exact date of the change, as he insists, he knew that he wanted it soon. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 188. [BACK]

79. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 157. [BACK]

80. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 189. [BACK]

81. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 157. [BACK]

82. See Stockman, Triumph of Politics, pp. 190-93. [BACK]

83. James Kelly, "A Slash at Social Security," Time, May 25, 1981, pp. 24-25. [BACK]

84. Tom Morganthau, "The Gipper Loses One," Newsweek, June 1, 1981, pp. 22-23. [BACK]