1. V. O. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, 4th ed. (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1958), pp. 568-69. [BACK]

2. See Robert A. Dahl, A Preface to Democratic Theory (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956). [BACK]

3. "Tip: 'Give 'Em Enough Rope,'" Newsweek, November 24, 1980, p. 47. [BACK]

4. Charles L. Heatherly, ed., Mandate for Leadership: Policy Management in a Conservative Administration (Washington, D.C.: Heritage Foundation, 1982). [BACK]

5. Neal R. Pierce and Jerry Hagstrom, "The Voters Send Carter a Message: Time For a Change—to Reagan," National Journal, November 8, 1980, pp. 1876-78. [BACK]

6. William Schneider, "The November 4 Vote for President: What Did It Mean," in Austin Ranney, ed., The American Elections of 1980 (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1981), p. 230. [BACK]

7. Hedrick Smith, Adam Clymer, Leonard Silk, Robert Lindsey, and Richard Burt, Reagan the Man, the President (New York: Macmillan, 1980), p. 59. [BACK]

8. Nov. 22, 1980, p. 34. [BACK]

9. Smith et al., Reagan the Man, p. 60. [BACK]

10. Kathleen A. Frankovic, "Public Opinion Trends," in Gerald Pomper with Colleagues, The Election of 1980 (Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House, 1981), p. 107. [BACK]

11. See Chapter 1, "Rival Theories and a Method for Choosing Among Them," in Aaron Wildavsky, Leadership in a Small Town (Totowa, N.J.: Bedminster Press, 1964), pp. 1-13. [BACK]

12. Laurence I. Barrett, Gambling with History (Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1983), p. 48. [BACK]

13. Schneider, "November 4 Vote for President," pp. 242-43. [BACK]

14. Ibid., p. 241. [BACK]

15. See J. Merrill Shanks and Warren E. Miller, "Policy Direction and Performance Evaluation: Complementary Explanations of the Reagan Elections," Prepared for 1985 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 29-Sept. 1, 1985, New Orleans. [BACK]

16. See Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein, "The Republican Surge in Congress," in Austin Ranney, ed., The American Elections of 1980 (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1981), pp. 263-302; and Charles E. Jacob, "The Congressional Elections," in Gerald Pomper with Colleagues, The Election of 1980, pp. 119-41. [BACK]

17. Jacob, "The Congressional Elections," p. 132. [BACK]

18. Smith et al., Reagan the Man, p. 4. [BACK]

19. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 55. [BACK]

20. Ibid., p. 59. [BACK]

21. Ibid., p. 24. [BACK]

22. For a good example, Paul McCracken editorialized in the Wall Street Journal that the tax cut first strategy should be tried; an excerpt was used by Martin Anderson, August 22, 1980, Memorandum for Governor Reagan; also in Fact Sheet for September 9 speech. [BACK]

23. That was not so easy; he was brought into the 1976 Reagan challenge to Gerald Ford when Reagan got in trouble for proposing a shift of $90 billion per year in federal programs to the states—without saying how the states would pay for them. One Reagan aide commented of Anderson's performance that "he could unscramble an egg." Jules Witcover, Marathon: The Pursuit of the Presidency 1972-76 (New York: Signet/New American Library, 1978), p. 408. [BACK]

24. As George Shultz reported to Leonard Silk of the New York Times, in Smith et al., Reagan the Man, p. 56. [BACK]

25. Fact Sheet for September 9 speech. [BACK]

26. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 133. [BACK]

27. Herbert Stein, Presidential Economics: The Making of Economic Policy from Roosevelt to Reagan and Beyond (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984), pp. 259-60. [BACK]

28. Spending Control, Caspar Weinberger; Tax Policy, Charles E. Walker; Regulatory Reform, Murray Weidenbaum; Inflation Policy, Paul McCracken; International Money Policy, Arthur F. Burns; Budget, Alan Greenspan; Economic Policy Coordinating Committee, chaired by George Shultz, included Milton Friedman, Jack Kemp, Michael Halburton (an energy specialist), James T. Lynn, William Simon, and Walter Winston. [BACK]

29. Steven R. Weisman, "Reaganomics and the President's Men," New York Times Magazine, October 24, 1982, pp. 26-29, 82-85, 89-92, 109. [BACK]

30. Text of Reagan's February 5, 1981, speech in New York Times, February 6, 1981, p. A12. [BACK]

31. Reagan's theory was not as unusual as it may appear. The sense that the availability of funds causes them to be spent was old; in the early 1950s the Republicans in Congress had proposed replacing the social security dedicated tax with general revenue funding, precisely because they believed that having its own trust fund was an invitation to program growth. See Martha Derthick, Policymaking for Social Security (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1979). [BACK]

32. David A. Stockman, The Triumph of Politics: How the Reagan Revolution Failed (New York: Harper & Row, 1986), p. 35. [BACK]

33. Michael Barone, Grant Ujifusa, and Douglas Mathews, Almanac of American Politics 1980 (New York: E. P. Dutton, 1979), p. 426. [BACK]

34. Ibid., pp. 49-50. [BACK]

35. Theodore Lowi, The End of Liberalism (New York: Norton, 1969), p. 289. [BACK]

36. Ibid., p. 72. [BACK]

37. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 33. [BACK]

38. David A. Stockman, "The Social Pork Barrel," The Public Interest, No. 39 (Spring 1975), pp. 3-30. [BACK]

39. Stockman and Reagan had already met in an unusual way. John Anderson, Stockman's mentor, had run for president as an independent, seeking a constituency that would reject both Carter's performance and Reagan's beliefs. After Carter refused to include Anderson in debates, Reagan and Anderson were to debate alone. Reagan's people asked Stockman to play Anderson in mock debates to help prepare their candidate. He did so well that James Baker asked Stockman to play the same role when Reagan debated Carter. Reagan, too, was impressed. When Reagan offered Stockman the job, Stockman reports that Reagan said, "Dave, I've been thinking about how to get even with you for that thrashing you gave me in the debate rehearsals. So I'm going to send you to OMB." Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 77. [BACK]

40. David A. Stockman, "Avoiding a GOP Economic Dunkirk," in Greider, The Education of David Stockman, pp. 142, 144. [BACK]

41. Stein, Presidential Economics, p. 266. [BACK]

42. Timothy B. Clark, "Economic Events May Have Overtaken Reagan's 1981 Budget-Cutting Goals," pp. 2152-57; Michael R. Gordon, "Don't Expect Business as Usual From Reagan's Businesslike Cabinet," pp. 2175-79, National Journal, December 20, 1980. [BACK]

43. Dan Rodrigues, "Tanks, Brifts, and Bulls that Quack," typescript, seminar paper, University of California, Berkeley, 1981. [BACK]

44. Kenneth H. Bacon, "Economic Broker: Donald Regan Will Sell Both Tax, Budget Cuts as Treasury Secretary," Wall Street Journal, December 12, 1980, pp. 1, 20. [BACK]

45. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 140. A spending increase here, a tax increase there, in the service of maintaining employment, was not what the Reagan administration wanted. They didn't believe in demand management. Microeconomics, based on price theory, is concerned with resource allocation in markets and, in some cases, as with Weidenbaum, in bureaucracies. Thus, microeconomists think in terms of departures from "efficient" markets and distortions caused by interfering with them. Macroeconomists are more likely to view the economy as a system to be manipulated, so on average, "macro" means more and "micro" means less intervention in the economy by government. [BACK]

46. Weisman, "Reaganomics and the President's Men," p. 85. [BACK]

47. See the profile in Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 252-61. [BACK]

48. Ibid., p. 392. [BACK]

49. Source for the above description of staff is ibid., chapters on Baker, Darman, Meese, Deaver, Gergen; also National Journal, special issue, April 25, 1981, "The Decision Makers." [BACK]

50. Darman made the point strongly in a February 21, 1981, memo to Baker. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 84. [BACK]

51. Timothy B. Clark, "Economic Events May Have Overtaken Reagan's 1981 Budget-Cutting Goals," National Journal, December 20, 1980, pp. 2152-55. [BACK]

52. Ibid., p. 2152. [BACK]

53. Albert R. Hunt, "Stockman's Hour," Wall Street Journal, February 19, 1981, pp. 1, 18. [BACK]

54. Dick Kirschten, "Reagan: 'No More Business As Usual,'" National Journal, February 21, 1981, pp. 300, 302-3. [BACK]

55. Elizabeth Drew, "A Reporter at Large: Early Days," New Yorker, March 16, 1981, pp. 84-99. [BACK]

56. Kenneth H. Bacon and Timothy D. Schellhardt, "Reagan Promises His Tax, Spending Cuts Will Reduce Inflation and Increase Growth," Wall Street Journal, February 19, 1981, pp. 3-5; and Dick Kirschten, "White House Strategy," pp. 300, 302-3; Linda E. Demkovich, "Assault on Food Stamps," pp. 301, 308-11; and Robert J. Samuelson, "Reagan's Bet," pp. 301, 304-6, all in National Journal, February 21, 1981. [BACK]

57. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 144. [BACK]

58. Martin Tolchin, "Democrats and the Budget: Liberals as well as Republicans in Congress are Gripped by Fervor to Achieve Balanced Package," New York Times, March 10, 1981, p. D8. [BACK]

59. Gramm was careful to phrase his written promises in a manner that gave him an out. Wright seems to have indulged in some wishful thinking. If he had been really suspicious, he would have noticed Gramm's hedged language. [BACK]

60. Richard E. Cohen, "They're Still a Majority in the House, But are Democrats Really in Control?" National Journal, January 31, 1981, pp. 189-91; and Richard E. Cohen, "Will the Democrats and Republicans Find Happiness in Their New Roles?" National Journal, December 6, 1980, pp. 2064-67. [BACK]

61. Richard E. Cohen, "In the Conservative Politics of the '80s, the South Is Rising Once Again," National Journal, February 28, 1981, pp. 350-54. [BACK]

62. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 168. [BACK]

63. "The New House Leaders: bipartisan compromisers," National Journal, December 13, 1980, pp. 2136-37; Richard E. Cohen, "For the Congressional Budget Process, 1981 Could Be the Make or Break Year," pp. 59-63; and "The House's Budget 'Compromiser,'" p. 61, National Journal, January 10, 1981. [BACK]

64. Richard Cohen, "Will the Democrats and Republicans Find Happiness," National Journal, December 6, 1980, pp. 2064-67. [BACK]

65. Peter Goldman et al., "Bracing for Reagan's Cuts," Newsweek, February 23, 1981, pp. 18-20. [BACK]

66. Cohen, "Will the Democrats and Republicans Find Happiness." [BACK]