Postscript: The Budget Truce of 1990
1. David Wessel and Gerald F. Seib, "Budget Negotiators Disagree on Target For Deficit Cuts Over Next Five Years," Wall Street Journal, May 25, 1990, p. A10. [BACK]
2. Quoted in David Wessel and Gerald F. Seib, "White House Says It's Sincere on Deficit Talks," Wall Street Journal, May 14, 1990, p. A3. [BACK]
3. John E. Yang and Steven Mufson, "Package Termed Best Circumstances Permit," Washington Post, October 29, 1990, pp. A1, A4. [BACK]
4. David E. Rosenbaum, "In Appeal for Support for Budget, President Calls Plan Best for Now," New York Times, October 3, 1990, pp. A1, D27. The quote is from the president's speech to the nation on October 2, 1990, in support of the summit deal, which was of the same size as the package eventually passed. [BACK]
5. Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Jackie Calmes, "Wrenching Battle on Deficit Reduction Points to More Contests in Years Ahead," Wall Street Journal, October 29, 1990, p. A3. For other examples, see Richard E. Cohen, "Under the Hype, It's Just Stale Sushi," National Journal, November 3, 1990, p. 2674; Richard Lacayo, "Dose of Reality," Time, November 5, 1990, pp. 28-30; and editorial, "Congress Ducks the Dirty Work Again," Business Week, November 12, 1990. [BACK]
6. For the assumptions in the table, see the source document. For the alternative figures, see "Fiscal Year 1991 Budget Agreement Summary Materials," summary document, October 27, 1990, issued by House Budget Committee. [BACK]
7. Versions of figures may be found in the G. William Hoagland and House Budget Committee summaries cited op. cit.; but there are just too many questions for anyone to be sure. [BACK]
8. If there are any that participants might be said to have believed, they are probably those based on the early October consensus of private forecasts, provided in House Budget Committee, "Fiscal Year 1991 Budget Agreement Summary Materials," op. cit., p. 52. [BACK]
9. See, for instance, Lawrence J. Haas, "Beyond the Deficit," National Journal, December 1, 1990, p. 2940. [BACK]
10. Figures are from House Budget Committee, "Fiscal Year 1991 Budget Agreement Summary Materials," op. cit., p. 31. All these figures are, of course, estimates. [BACK]
11. Ways and Means Committee staff memo, 10/26/90; similar figures are used in tables in ibid. We are aware of no efforts to calculate the income effects of the military cuts. [BACK]
12. Lawrence J. Haas, Running on Empty: Bush, Congress, and the Politics of a Bankrupt Government (Homewood, IL: Business One Irwin, 1990). [BACK]
13. See, for example, Lawrence J. Haas, "Thinking Small," National Journal, April 27, 1990, pp. 841-44; David Wessel and Gerald F. Seib, "White House Says It's Sincere on Deficit Talks," Wall Street Journal, May 14, 1990, p. A3. [BACK]
14. Compare Table C-2 of Council of Economic Advisers, The Economic Report of the President, February, 1990 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1990), p. 296, to the table, "Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars," in Economic Indicators, March 1990, p. 2. There would be talk about the fall in corporate profits, but that decline in the fourth quarter of 1989 fit a year-long trend; see p. 4 of above. [BACK]
15. David Wessel, "Bush Increases Push for Action on Budget Gap Amid Fears Rising Rates May Cripple Economy," Wall Street Journal, May 4, 1990, p. A12; John E. Yang and Steven Mufson, "Bush, Lawmakers to Hold Budget 'Summit' Sunday," Washington Post, May 3, 1990, p. A7. [BACK]
16. Gerald F. Seib and Michel McQueen, "Bush Decides Time Is Ripe to Cut Deficit," Wall Street Journal, May 9, 1991, p. A2. [BACK]
17. Alan Murray and David Wessel, "Brady to Seek New Borrowing Authority For S&L Bailout, Possibly Tripling Total," Wall Street Journal, May 23, 1990, p. A2. [BACK]
18. Cites above and: David Wessel and Michel McQueen, "Bush Would Take Part in Discussions on Deficit Cuts Without Preconditions," Wall Street Journal, May 8, 1990, p. A26 and "As Budget Summit Looms, Jockeying Begins Over Who'll Dare Raise What and for Whom," Wall Street Journal, May 9, 1990, p. A16; David Wessel, "Budget Negotiators Haggle for 2 Hours But Fail to Agree on a Deficit Forecast," Wall Street Journal, May 18, 1990, p. A12; Tom Redburn, "Massive Deficit Reduction Has Perils, Analysts Warn," Los Angeles Times, May 20, 1991, p. A1; David Wessel and Gerald F. Seib, "Budget Negotiators Disagree on Targets For Deficit Cuts Over Next Five Years," Wall Street Journal, May 25, 1990; and interviews. [BACK]
19. Andrew Rosenthal, "Bush Now Concedes A Need For 'Tax Revenue Increases' To Reduce Deficit In Budget," New York Times, June 27, 1990, p. A1 and "3 Little Words: How Bush Dropped His Tax Pledge," New York Times, June 29, 1990, p. A1; Dan Balz and John E. Yang, "Bush Abandons Campaign Pledge, Calls For New Taxes," Washington Post, June 27, 1990, p. A1; Juan Williams, "A White House At War With Itself: The Budget Debacle," Washington Post, July 21, 1990, p. C1. [BACK]
20. David Wessel, "Budget Summit May Find That Tax Increases Are Piece of Cake Compared With Spending Cuts," Wall Street Journal, May 24, 1990, p. A16. [BACK]
21. David Wessel and Michel McQueen, "Bush, Congressional Leaders to Meet Again on Scheduling of Budget Talks," Wall Street Journal, July 30, 1990, p. A3; Ann Devroy and John E. Yang, "GOP Budget Attack on Democrats Stumbles," Washington Post, August 2, 1990, p. A10. [BACK]
22. Michael R. Gordon, "Pentagon Drafts New Battle Plan," Washington Post, August 2, 1990, p. A1. [BACK]
23. David Wessel, "Quicker Agreement Is Expected on Budget Deficit," Wall Street Journal, August 8, 1990, p. A2. [BACK]
24. Dana Priest, "Fearful Federal Workers Bracing for Furloughs," Washington Post, September 26, 1990, p. A1; John E. Yang and Dan Morgan, "Michel Defects on Tax Cut," Washington Post, September 26, 1990, p. A1. [BACK]
25. John E. Yang, "Dole Seeks To Divide Budget Bill," Washington Post, September 21, 1990, p. A1; also Jackie Calmes and David Wessel, "GOP Proposes Limit Covering Tax Deductions," Wall Street Journal, September 17, 1990, p. A3; David Wessel and Jeffrey Birnbaum, "Taxing Proposition: How the Budget Talks May Curb Deductions of Well-Off Taxpayers," Wall Street Journal, September 18, 1990, p. A1. [BACK]
26. John E. Yang and Dan Morgan, "Michel Defects on Tax Cut," Washington Post, September 26, 1990, p. A1; John E. Yang, "House GOP Conservatives Draw Line on Deficit Deal," Washington Post, September 25, 1990, p. A5. [BACK]
27. Susan F. Rasky, "Agreement Near, Budget Talks Turn To Social Security," New York Times, September 28, 1990, p. A1; David Wessel and Jackie Calmes, "Shift by Bush On Gains Tax Called Possible," Wall Street Journal, September 27, 1990, p. A3; Tom Redburn and William J. Eaton, "Social Security Benefits Tax Seen as Deficit Key," Los Angeles Times, June 26, 1990, p. A20; David Wessel, "Budget Summit May Find That Tax Increases Are Piece of Cake Compared With Spending Cuts," Wall Street Journal, May 24, 1990, p. A16. [BACK]
28. Steven Mufson and John E. Yang, "Elderly Preparing to Fight Social Security Cuts," Washington Post, July 5, 1990, p. A12. [BACK]
29. On September 30 that excluded home heating oil; by the next day it was included. Martin Tolchin, "Why Heating Oil Is Taxed After All," New York Times, October 2, 1990, p. A22. [BACK]
30. Description is taken from the text of the Budget Summit Agreement, op. cit., and from Democratic Study Group, "Fact Sheet" (MS., September 30, 1990). See also, on details and reactions, John E. Yang, "Bush, Hill Leaders Approve Budget Package," Washington Post, October 1, 1990, p. A1 and related stories; "Accord to Reduce Spending And Raise Taxes Is Reached; Many In Congress Critical" (banner above a set of stories), New York Times, October 1, 1990, p. A1 and related. [BACK]
31. Hilary Stout, "Consumer Excise Levies to Climb; Big Rise on Gasoline Tax Planned," Wall Street Journal, October 1, 1990, p. A7. [BACK]
32. David Wessel and Jeffrey H. Birnbaum, "Consolation Prize: Tax Shelters for Rich Could Return in Plan To Aid Small Business," Wall Street Journal, October 2, 1990, p. A1. [BACK]
33. Robert D. Hershey, Jr., "Tax Rises Seen Hitting Hard At People of Moderate Means," New York Times, October 2, 1990, p. A1; John E. Yang, "House Democrats Join Revolt on Budget Deal," Washington Post, October 2, 1991, p. A2; Robert Pear, "Cost Increases for Medicare Recipients Stir Protests," New York Times, October 2, 1990, p. A24. [BACK]
34. Helen Dewar and Tom Kenworthy, "Conservative Republicans Assail Budget Pact; Democrats Skeptical," Washington Post, October 1, 1990, p. A8. [BACK]
35. Jeffrey H. Birnbaum, "Poll Shows Americans Are Forgiving on Bush's Breaking of No-Tax Pledge," Wall Street Journal, July 12, 1990, p. A12. [BACK]
36. David E. Rosenbaum, "President Presses Accord on Budget As House Debates," p. A1, and Susan F. Rasky, "Arm Twisting in Capital Just Short of Physical," p. A24, New York Times, October 5, 1990; John E. Yang and Tom Kenworthy, "House Rejects Deficit-Reduction Agreement," Washington Post, October 5, 1990, p. A1; David E. Rosenbaum, "House Votes Stopgap Funds After Budget Pact Defeat; White House Warns of Veto," New York Times, October 6, 1990, p. A1. [BACK]
37. John E. Yang and Steven Mufson, "Package Termed Best Circumstances Permit," Washington Post, October 29, 1990, p. A1. [BACK]
38. David E. Rosenbaum, "Leaders Reach A Tax Deal And Predict Its Approval; Bush Awaits Final Details," New York Times, October 25, 1990, pp. A1 and B10. [BACK]
39. "The Deficit, Without Pretense," New York Times, June 28, 1990, p. A24; Herbert Stein, "Love That Budget Package," Wall Street Journal, December 4, 1990, p. A18. [BACK]
40. See, for instance, Michael R. Kagay, "Deficit Raises as Much Alarm As Illegal Drugs, a Poll Finds," New York Times, July 25, 1990, p. A9. [BACK]