Demography

Population Trends

Demographic growth has been a crucial component of recent environmental degradation in Buguias. Although the exact pace is impossible to gauge, given the unreliability of early census data, it is clear that the local population grew at a rapid rate during the American period. The available figures show Buguias municipality more than doubling in two decades, rising from 2,611 inhabitants in 1918 to 5,691 in 1939 (Republic of the Philippines 1960a , v. 1, pt. ii:35–2). Not surprisingly, the war interrupted this expansion; the 1948 figures show a gain of only 203 persons during the previous decade.

After the war, when statistics—although still suspect—improve, a demographic boom is clearly evident. By 1960 the municipality had swollen to 8,658 persons; ten years later it had reached 12,402; and in 1980 the figure stood at 17,556 (Republic of the Philippines 1960a , v. 1, pt. ii:35–2 and Buguias Municipality 1983:12). The rate of increase is presently diminishing, and stability in the near future is not likely; even assuming a decline in natality, government statisticians expect Buguias municipality to hold 23,819 individuals by the year 2000 (Buguias Municipality 1983:13). The barangay (village) of Buguias repeats this pattern in miniature; its 1960 population of 869 had increased to 1,300 by 1970 (Republic of

the Philippines 1960a , v. 1, pt. ii:353, and Republic of the Philippines 1970, v. 1(10):1,2), and by 1986 local officials estimated the community's population at well over 2,000.

The social and ecological consequences of this rapid demographic expansion are palpable. Since the national economy does not easily absorb rural migrants, the growing population requires an expanded agricultural base. New gardens must be cleared and existing ones cultivated more intensively. Yet intensification is already advanced; after the "rainbird revolution" most fields produced year-round, and increased labor or chemical inputs yield exceptionally low marginal returns. New irrigation systems could expand dry-season production, but the potential here is also limited. The most feasible option in recent years has rather been the expansion of the garden area, entailing the cultivation of ever more marginal sites. A second option is migration to new agricultural areas, including both the eastern cloud forest and the few frontier zones remaining in the lowlands of Nueva Vizcaya.

Local Attitudes and Population Growth

The Buguias people are well aware of the problems arising from their quickly growing population. Even the ancestors are sometimes asked to intervene; during one recent ritual a manbunung chanted a prayer that might be loosely translated, "We have become many but the land does not become wide, so please help our children who have gone to the lowlands to make their gardens." According to almost all local observers, today's average nuclear family is larger than that of prewar days. While they partly attribute this to decreased child mortality, women generally concur that the birth interval has shortened. Some facetiously conclude that whereas in the prewar period couples required three years to conceive their first child, many today can seemingly produce an infant in only three months.

In exploring these changing fertility patterns, attention must be paid both to cultural attitudes and to the economic role of children. The data here are curious. As in much of the world, Buguias parents generally prize large families, and many saw the postwar fertility increase as a great boon. But, in contradiction to some influ-

ential demographic theorists, the high value the Buguias people accord to numerous offspring is not easily attributable to economic calculations. According to several scholars (Mamdani 1972, Caldwell 1978), one should expect high birthrates where children confer more to the domestic economy than they consume. Under such conditions, the more children a couple have, the more they may hope to prosper. Low birthrates, in contrast, are expected in societies in which children are an economic drain. Yet in Buguias, children are abundant even though they cost much and contribute little.

Young children in Buguias do occasionally labor in behalf of their parents, but school and play consume most of their time. They do, however, care for younger siblings; this does not directly add to the family budget, but it does free their parents. Adolescents, especially young men, often devote themselves to gainful labor, but the money they earn is their own, and few accord significant sums to the family account. Although children as young as six may carry vegetables, even at this age they retain their own wages; parents usually must ask for a part of the earnings, but not all children agree to share. Indeed, young men even in their twenties commonly remain a net financial drain on their parents, supporting themselves periodically but returning home when in financial straits. Education beyond the sixth grade is also a significant cost for those who continue. In short, virtually everyone in Buguias agrees that children are a net expense. It is the few basig couples—those without charges to support—who enjoy unexpected prosperity.

Cain's (1981) demographic thesis focuses in part on social security; couples often have numerous children, he claims, in the hope that at least one will be able to give them adequate care should they become ill or when they reach old age. This theory also fails in Buguias. Here the few elders who are too infirm to work are always supported by their extended families.

The high birthrate in Buguias is perhaps, in contrast, linked to the peculiarly local cultural value of children. Buguias religion revolves around ancestor worship, and most persons believe that the ancestral spirits maintain their power through the actions of their descendants. The more numerous one's progeny, the greater one's chance of attaining a high afterworld position. Childless prede-

cessors—even wealthy ones—are eventually forgotten, excluded from genealogical reckonings. As one elder phrased it (in English), "If you have no children you are erased from the map of Buguias."

Nevertheless, a demographic sea change may be near. Worry about the future availability of farmland is widespread, and some individuals openly question the value of having large families. Parents with inadequate land to support their children properly now endure quiet censure. Women educated up to the high school level, and especially the college level, generally desire only three or four children. Young men, however—especially those without an education—often hope to raise, as they put it, as many children as they can afford.

In accordance with the Philippine national population program, subsidized contraceptives are available from the barangay clinic. Although some couples make use of them, artificial birth control is not a standard practice. Both devout Pagans and Christians feel moral qualms, and many women fear the side effects of certain methods. Contraception may one day be accepted, but as it now stands even couples who (claim to) desire ending their reproductive careers often continue to have children. And regardless of future changes in attitude, the present age structure ensures that the population will continue to expand. Given the economic conditions of the Philippines, social and ecological strains will increase with it. One casualty will certainly be Buguias's forests.