Population Trends

Demographic growth has been a crucial component of recent environmental degradation in Buguias. Although the exact pace is impossible to gauge, given the unreliability of early census data, it is clear that the local population grew at a rapid rate during the American period. The available figures show Buguias municipality more than doubling in two decades, rising from 2,611 inhabitants in 1918 to 5,691 in 1939 (Republic of the Philippines 1960a , v. 1, pt. ii:35–2). Not surprisingly, the war interrupted this expansion; the 1948 figures show a gain of only 203 persons during the previous decade.

After the war, when statistics—although still suspect—improve, a demographic boom is clearly evident. By 1960 the municipality had swollen to 8,658 persons; ten years later it had reached 12,402; and in 1980 the figure stood at 17,556 (Republic of the Philippines 1960a , v. 1, pt. ii:35–2 and Buguias Municipality 1983:12). The rate of increase is presently diminishing, and stability in the near future is not likely; even assuming a decline in natality, government statisticians expect Buguias municipality to hold 23,819 individuals by the year 2000 (Buguias Municipality 1983:13). The barangay (village) of Buguias repeats this pattern in miniature; its 1960 population of 869 had increased to 1,300 by 1970 (Republic of

the Philippines 1960a , v. 1, pt. ii:353, and Republic of the Philippines 1970, v. 1(10):1,2), and by 1986 local officials estimated the community's population at well over 2,000.

The social and ecological consequences of this rapid demographic expansion are palpable. Since the national economy does not easily absorb rural migrants, the growing population requires an expanded agricultural base. New gardens must be cleared and existing ones cultivated more intensively. Yet intensification is already advanced; after the "rainbird revolution" most fields produced year-round, and increased labor or chemical inputs yield exceptionally low marginal returns. New irrigation systems could expand dry-season production, but the potential here is also limited. The most feasible option in recent years has rather been the expansion of the garden area, entailing the cultivation of ever more marginal sites. A second option is migration to new agricultural areas, including both the eastern cloud forest and the few frontier zones remaining in the lowlands of Nueva Vizcaya.