Crop Variability

The riskiest crops, lettuce and celery, are marked by pronounced price swings. This volatility reflects meteorological sensitivity, since neither crop will endure weather extremes. But the rapidity of price fluctuations, often severalfold in less than one week, baffles scholars and farmers alike. Conventional explanations cite the unfathomable machinations of the Chinese "cartels," but this is mostly conjecture.

Not uncommonly, a Buguias farmer confronted with miserable prices will allow a lettuce or celery crop to rot in the field, since harvest and shipping costs would not be recoverable. The perishability of both vegetables adds further risks; even a transport delay, common during the landslide-prone wet season, may doom a mature crop. For precisely this reason, however, a truckload of lettuce

or celery brought in when the price curve peaks can bring its owner the elusive "jackpot" harvest.

A risk-averse farmer does well to choose cabbage or potatoes. These are, without rivals, the leading crops of Benguet, and their large area of supply combines with steady demand to dampen price swings. Furthermore, both crops may be stored for sale when prices rise. Cabbage remains reasonably fresh if held in a high-elevation storehouse for up to one week, whereas potatoes can last several months. Nevertheless, neither crop shows a flat price curve. Severe weather can bring on rapid changes of fortune, and a series of typhoons can block transportation, allowing those farmers retaining road access to reap extraordinary profits. Either crop, however, can be overplanted in any given season, depressing prices and leaving most growers with little if any profit.

Other vegetables generally yield reasonable returns, although all are subject to periodic gluts and shortages. Carrot prices fluctuate erratically only in certain years. In 1986, however, carrots climbed from 1.5 pesos a kilo to 7 pesos a kilo then promptly fell back to 3 pesos a kilo, all in the span of a little more than one month. At the start of this sequence farmers shipping carrots lost money, in the middle they profited greatly, and at the end they broke even. This oscillation especially perplexed local market experts, since it occurred during the dry season, a period of general price stability.