Introduction
At the end of World War II, the U.S. gross national product equaled over half of the gross product of the entire world. During the post-World War II period of American economic and military hegemony, the U.S. pursued a national policy that favored activities designed to contain "world communism" over the interests of its domestic economy. Starting from the position of overwhelming predominance, these choices seemed necessary and obvious.
Since that time, much has happened in the world to clarify our perceptions. World communism was not only successfully contained over the last 40 years, but today, in many nations, communism and socialism are being abandoned in favor of democracy and capitalism. The fall of communism in Eastern Europe and elsewhere is viewed by many as a harbinger of a "victory" over world communism and a demonstration of the superiority of American-style laissez faire capitalism to other economic systems. However, there are also many who believe that in its efforts to contain communism, the U.S. may have brought its economy—especially its high-technology sectors—to a position close to ruin.
Law 1—
That Which Is Currently Taking Place Is Not Impossible
The perception of U.S. dominance as assured and perpetual is severely flawed. The U.S. may soon cease to be the world's commercial leader in the field of supercomputers and has rapidly lost ground in other areas,
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as well, including machine tools, consumer electronics, semiconductor-manufacturing equipment, and high-performance semiconductors. Even areas of U.S. strength, such as aircraft and computer hardware and software, may soon be at risk unless strong action is taken. American competitiveness, much less dominance, in these and other high-technology areas can no longer be assumed.
Alarms have been sounded at many levels. The National Advisory Committee on Semiconductors, in its recently released second annual report, refers to the semiconductor industry as "an industry in crisis" and urges the federal government to act immediately or risk losing the semiconductor industry in its entirety and with it, the computer industry, as well. The Administration itself has just identified 22 critical technologies vital to U.S. military and economic security, a list of technologies virtually identical to those identified earlier and individually by the Departments of Defense and Commerce as vital to the future of the U.S. in world geopolitical and economic competition.
A concerted effort on the part of the Japanese, combined with complacency on the part of American industry and unfavorable trade conditions between the U.S. and Japan, have brought about this situation in which spheres of U.S. industry have lost former dominance and competitiveness in certain international markets. The world has changed. The U.S. is no longer predominant.