Government As Buyer and Leader

Neil Davenport

Neil Davenport is the former President and CEO of Cray Computer Corporation. For more complete biographical information, see his presentation in Session 3.

The market for very high-performance supercomputers remains relatively small. Arguably, the market worldwide in 1990 was not much more than $1 billion. In the 1990s, the development of a machine to satisfy this market—certainly to get a viable market share—requires the development of components, as well as of the machine itself. The marketplace presented to component manufacturers by suppliers of supercomputers is simply not large enough to attract investment necessary for the production of very fast next-generation logic and memory parts. High performance means high development costs and high price. This is a far cry from the days of development of the CRAY-1, when standard logic and memory components were put together in innovative packaging to produce the world's fastest computer.

The market for very large machines is small. It would clearly be helpful if there were no inhibitions to market growth. An easier climate for export of such technology would help the manufacturers. This is a small aspect of a general preference for free and open competition, which would give better value to the buyer.

Government remains the largest customer throughout the world, without whom there would probably not be a supercomputer industry. It is very important that government continue to buy and use supercomputers and in so doing, direct the efforts of the manufacturers

of supercomputers. The world market is so small that it clearly cannot sustain a large number of competitors, given the high cost of entry and maintenance. The essential element for success in the supercomputing business is that there be a reasonable size of market that is looking for increased performance and increased value. In this way, the survival of the fittest can be assured, if not the survival of all.