Introduction

On September 8, 1989, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) published a report proposing a five-year, $1.9 billion federal High Performance Computing Initiative (HPCI). The goals of this program are to

• maintain and extend U.S. leadership in high-performance computing and encourage U.S. sources of production;

• encourage innovation in high-performance computing by increasing its diffusion and assimilation into the U.S. science and engineering communities; and

• support U.S. economic competitiveness and productivity through greater utilization of networked high-performance computing in analysis, design, and manufacturing.

In response to a Congressional request, OSTP and the Department of Energy, acting through Los Alamos National Laboratory, engaged Gartner Group, Inc., to develop a quantitative assessment of the likely economic impact of the proposed HPCI program over the coming decade. This study is proceeding in two phases.

In Phase I, which was completed in July 1990, two alternative scenarios (A and B), both depicting supercomputing through the year 2000, were developed. One scenario assumes full funding for the proposed HPCI program that would commence in FY 1992. The other scenario assumes "business as usual," that is, no additional federal funding above what is expected for HPCI-related activities now under way.

Phase II, which is the more important phase, was completed in September 1990. In Phase II, the two scenarios are extended to encompass the impact of the HPCI program, first upon selected industrial segments that are the major users of supercomputers and then upon the U.S. economy as a whole.

I will summarize the results of Phase I and describe the methodology employed in Phase II.