THE NUMBER OF FEMALE CANDIDATES IN RECENT STATE PRIMARY ELECTIONS
As many had predicted, the 1998 inauguration of California's blanket primary was the most expensive in California state history: a record $50 million was spent. In the gubernatorial primary the only woman in the race, Democrat Jane Harman, lost in a three-way race to her male competitors. Harman received only 12.3 percent of the vote to Al Checchi's 12.7 percent, while Gray Davis won with 34.9 percent. Harman had enough preexisting "personal political capital" to enter the race and offer a strong challenge to her contenders. Harman, as well as Checchi, both millionaires, contributed heavily to their own campaigns. Davis, who had close ties to the teachers' union and other large unions, received greater interest group support.
In the same election year in the Senate primary, San Diego Mayor Susan Golding originally entered the race. As a moderate supporter of abortion rights who received "high marks overall," Golding, many analysts believed, was the Republicans' best chance at defeating Barbara Boxer in the general election. However, Golding dropped out of the race citing fund-raising problems. Thus, the top contenders in the Republican primary—Darrell
Because the backing of the party appears to be important to increasing the number of women in primary elections, a comparison of the percentages of female candidates running under similar primary election methods may shed light on the impact of the blanket primary on women in California. In most established democracies elections are partisan, and parties, not voters, nominate the candidates. However, in the United States three other states utilize primary systems that are similar to the blanket primary system that was adopted in California: Washington, Alaska, and Louisiana (Cook and McGillivray 1997).
The blanket primary in Washington is nearly identical to the system that California adopted. However, the systems in Alaska and Louisiana vary in potentially important ways. In Alaska, the Republican candidates are not listed on the blanket ballot. The Republican primary is only open to registered Republicans and those who are undeclared. All other parties' candidates are listed on the same ballot, and all voters except registered Republicans can vote for these candidates. In Louisiana, all candidates are listed together on the ballot, and there is an added runoff component. If one candidate receives 50 percent of the total vote, she is automatically elected to office. If no candidate receives 50 percent, the two top finishers, regardless of party, advance to a runoff election. Because there are few cases of these distinct blanket-like primaries, for this analysis we will lump together races in these four states despite important differences, and refer to them as "blanket/nonpartisan." We then compare these to races in all other states, referring to them as "partisan."
We compare statewide races in 1994, 1996, and 1998. The results are shown in the appendix (table 12.2).[2] Of the one hundred Senate primaries, forty-two of the races included at least one woman candidate.[3] Of the eighty gubernatorial primaries, thirty-seven, or 46 percent, included at least one woman candidate. Similarly, in those three election years, of the ten primary elections that were blanket/nonpartisan, six races included at least one woman, of which female candidates won four.
These initial results do not support our hypothesis. On the basis of data from these three election years, blanket/nonpartisan primaries do not negatively affect the numbers of female candidates running relative to partisan primaries. Although there are very few cases of blanket/nonpartisan primaries, it does not appear that fewer women run in these primaries, nor are those women who run more likely to lose their races. Thus, contrary to our original hypothesis, it appears that the blanket/nonpartisan primary system does not directly impede the numerical representation of women.