THE MAGNITUDE OF CROSSOVER VOTING
We calculated overall estimates of crossover voting in the 1998 primary election for both the Governor's and Senate races, again analyzing the pooled Field poll dataset. In light of the measurement issues raised in the previous section, we calculated these measures using both party registration and identification, and then both including and excluding independents.[7] In the gubernatorial race, 15.5 percent of respondents who identified with a major party planned to cross over by the identification measure, compared to 16.6 percent by the registration measure. The magnitude of crossover voting was similar in the Senate race: 13.7 percent as defined by identification and 14.8 percent as defined by registration. When independents were counted as crossover voters, the magnitude of crossover voting naturally increased (to the 20 to 30 percent range).[8]
However measured, the extent of crossover voting is quite substantial: in both the gubernatorial and senatorial races, about one in six voters said they would choose a candidate outside their own party. Whether crossover voting changed electoral outcomes obviously depended on the circumstances of individual races. Nevertheless, the observed level of crossover voting can be put in some perspective by comparing it with the level of crossover voting in past general elections. Blanket primaries and general elections possess similar structural constraints (or lack thereof) in that all registered voters can select any candidate for any office. It is therefore reasonable to expect primary elections to resemble general elections in some respects. This claim is born out in the aggregate level of crossover voting. The number of partisan crossover voters in the 1998 primary was quite similar to the traditional level of defection in general elections (DiCamillo 1998). In the twelve presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial races from 1984 to 1996, 20.8 percent of registered Democrats voted for
The comparability of crossover voting in the blanket primary and past general elections suggests something about the motivation for crossover voting. In general elections, raiding or hedging are not relevant strategies because the election determines who governs and thus most voters sincerely select the candidate they prefer to hold office.[10] Because a segment of each party's registered voters regularly prefers candidates from the other party, the blanket primary, instead of creating partisan mischief, may simply allow these voters to express their true preferences earlier in the election season.[11]