1. The Congressional Budget Office projected a FY83 deficit, under current policies, of $157 billion, total spending at $809 billion, and spending on programs other than defense, interest, and social security totaling $318 billion. See CBO, "Baseline Budget Projections for Fiscal Years 1983-87," February 1982, pp. 40, 45. For deficit projections, see CBO, "An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1983," February 1982, p. xiv.

2. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 353.

3. Jonathan Fuerbringer, "Stockman Defends Reagan's Proposal and Size of Deficit," New York Times, February 8, 1982, pp. A1, B13.

4. Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 1983 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982), pp. 3-4.

5. Ibid., pp. 3-14.

6. Ibid., pp. 3-12.

7. Congressional Budget Office, "An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1983," p. 7.

8. Martin Tolchin, "Budget Brings Attacks in Congress From Republicans and Democrats," New York Times, February 7, 1982, p. 28.

9. Martin Tolchin, "Baker Tries to Quiet Storm Raised by GOP on Deficit," New York Times, February 9, 1982, p. B14.

10. Edward Cowan, "Economists Voice Doubts on Budget," New York Times, February 9, 1982, p. B14.

11. Charles Alexander, "Roadblocks to Recovery," Time, February 22, 1982, pp. 36-38.

12. Peter McGrath et al., "The Deficit Rebellion," Newsweek, February 22, 1982, pp. 22-24.

13. Alexander, "Roadblocks to Recovery"; McGrath et al., "Deficit Rebellion"; Martin Tolchin, "Reagan Aides Hear Budget Attacked From Both Parties," New York Times, February 10, 1982, p. A1.

14. Steven V. Roberts, "Voters Reported Less Confident of Reagan Plan," New York Times, February 21, 1982, p. A1.

15. Social psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide two good examples. First, "most respondents in a sample of undergraduates refused to stake $10 on the toss of a coin if they stood to win less than $30." Second, in "a situation in which an individual is forced to choose between an 85 percent chance to lose $1,000 ... and a sure loss of $800, a large majority of people express a preference for the gamble over the sure loss." Even though, on average, they will do worse that way. See their "Choices, Values, and Frames," American Psychologist 39, no. 4 (April 1984), pp. 341-50; quote on p. 342.

16. Seth S. King, "Labor Challenges Reagan on Budget," New York Times, February 16, 1982, p. A1.

17. Edward Cowan, "Business Leaders Object to Deficits in Reagan Budget," New York Times, March 4, 1982, pp. A1, D15; "Euphoria Ends," Time, May 17, 1982, p. 56.

18. "Bubbles in the Red Ink," Time, March 8, 1982, p. 17; Martin Tolchin, "G.O.P. Leaders Tell President His Plan on Budget is Dead," New York Times, February 24, 1982, pp. A1, A14.

19. James Kelly, "The Zigzag Art of Politics," Time, March 15, 1982, pp. 15-16; Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 349-50.

20. Ed Magnuson, "Playing It Cool or Frozen in Ice?" Time, March 22, 1982, p. 34.

21. George J. Church, "A Season of Scare Talk," Time, March 15, 1982, pp. 12-14.

22. Jane Bryant Quinn, "Reagan Against Himself," Newsweek, March 1, 1982, p. 66.

23. See Martin Anderson, Revolution (San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988), p. 211.

24. Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 351.

25. Ibid., pp. 348-53.

26. George J. Church, "Trying to Be Mr. Nice Guy," Time, April 5, 1982, pp. 13-14.

27. Descriptions of the "Gang" are based on interviews and on documents made available by staff for a participant, who kept a notebook on these events.

28. COLAs would be limited to 4 percent and occur every fifteen months instead of every twelve. These provisions, according to the estimates used, would yield a 7.5 percent cut in the benefits received by an individual over the period from July 1, 1982, through December 31, 1985.

29. "Domenici Calls Budget Pact Task of O'Neill and Reagan," Associated Press Wire Service, New York Times, April 9, 1982, p. A15.

30. Martin Tolchin, "A Month's Budget Talks Finally Came to Naught," New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A17.

31. Howell Raines, "Reagan Optimistic That Budget Talks Will End Impasse," New York Times, April 6, 1982, pp. A1, A17.

32. Howell Raines, "White House Hints Accord on Budget by Tax Surcharge," New York Times, April 15, 1982, pp. A1, D20; Kenneth Nobel, "Baker Voices Hope of Gaining Accord on Tax Surcharge," New York Times, April 19, 1982, pp. A1, A19; Ed Magnuson, "Stumbling to a Showdown," Time, April 26, 1982, pp. 10-14; "Nudging the Budget," Newsweek, April 26, 1982, p. 35.

33. Transcript, New York Times, April 17, 1982, p. A9.

34. Peter McGrath et al., "In Quest of a Pax Reaganomica," Newsweek, May 3, 1982, pp. 20-21; Barrett, Gambling with History, p. 361.

35. Martin Tolchin, "Reagan to Enter Talks on Budget as Negotiators Reach an Impasse," New York Times, April 28, 1982, p. A1; Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 358-61.

36. These numbers are derived from worksheets of participants.

37. Jerry Adler et al., "The 'Extra Mile' to Nowhere," Newsweek, May 10, 1982, pp. 38-42.

38. Tolchin, "A Month's Budget Talks Finally Came to Naught."

39. Transcript, New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A16.

40. Transcript of Bolling's reply to Reagan on behalf of Democrats in Congress, New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A18.

41. Steven V. Roberts, "Senate Unit Begins Drafting a Budget," New York Times, April 30, 1982, p. A18.

42. Steven V. Roberts, "House Democrats Emphasizing Unity," New York Times, May 2, 1982, p. 26.

43. Martin Tolchin, "Domenici Presents Own Budget Plan," New York Times, May 5, 1982, Section 2, p. 11.

44. Martin Tolchin, "White House and GOP Leaders Agree on Budget Proposal for '83," New York Times, May 6, 1982, pp. A1, B13.

45. Ibid.

46. Martin Tolchin, "President Pledges to Push Campaign for Budget Plan," New York Times, May 7, 1982, pp. A1, D18.

47. Ibid.

48. Adam Clymer, "Talk of Social Security Cutbacks Causes Alarm in Ranks of G.O.P.,"New York Times, May 8, 1982, p. A10; Martin Tolchin, "Social Security Issue Causing Problems for New Budget," New York Times, May 8, 1982, pp. A1, A9.

49. Martin Tolchin, "G.O.P. in House Opposes Budget of Senate Panel," New York Times, May 12, 1982, pp. A1, A24.

50. Congressional Quarterly Almanac 1982, Vol. 38 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1983), p. 187 (hereafter CQA 1982).

51. Tom Morganthau et al., "The Third Rail of Politics," Newsweek, May 24, 1982, pp. 24-26.

52. CQA 1982, pp. 191-92.

53. "GOP puts aside bipartisan stance on 1983 budget," National Journal, May 8, 1982, pp. 799, 826.

54. Jane Perlez, "Moderate Republicans Feel They Control House Passage of Budget," New York Times, May 11, 1982, p. A17.

55. CQA 1982, pp. 190-91.

56. Richard S. Cohen, "The Fiscal 1983 Budget Equation: Election + Recession = Frustration," National Journal, May 29, 1982, pp. 944-48.

57. CQA 1982, pp. 192-93.

58. "House Raising on the Hill," Time, May 31, 1982, p. 16.

59. George J. Church, "Chaos Aplenty, but No Budget," Time, June 7, 1982, p. 18; Tom Morganthau and Gloria Borger, "Anyone for a Budget?" Newsweek, June 7, 1982, pp. 31-32.

60. CQA 1982, pp. 192-93.

61. "GOP in Best Position to Win on 1983 Budget," National Journal, June 5, 1982, p. 1021.

62. CQA 1982, p. 193.

63. Church, "Chaos Aplenty."

64. John Herbers, "President Denounces Budget Process," New York Times, May 29, 1982, p. 44.

65. See comments by Senator Bill Bradley, Newsweek, May 3, 1982, p. 21; comments of Peter G. Peterson and five former secretaries of the Treasury in Time, June 7, 1982, p. 18.

66. See Robert J. Samuelson, "The Interest in Rates," National Journal, June 5, 1982, p. 1015.

67. Steven V. Roberts, "President Rejects Bipartisan Budget," New York Times, June 3, 1982, Section 2, p. 15.

68. Ibid.

69. Martin Tolchin, "GOP Budget Wins Approval in House by Vote of 219-206," New York Times, June 11, 1982, p. A1.

70. Ibid.

71. Ibid., and CQA 1982, pp. 195-96.

72. Walter Isaacson, "Breaking the Budget Logjam," Time, June 21, 1982, p. 37

73. Martin Tolchin, "Conferees Agree on Budget for '83 Along GOP Lines," New York Times, June 18, 1982, pp. A1, D17. For conference details, see CQA 1982, pp. 196-99; and Richard E. Cohen, "Congress's 'House of Cards' Budget May Be Constructed on Quicksand," National Journal, June 26, 1982, pp. 1120-26.

74. Steven R. Weisman, "Reagan's Risky Decision," New York Times, February 7, 1982, pp. 1, 30.

75. "Business may be victim of congressional drive to increase taxes," National Journal, February 27, 1982, pp. 355, 389.

76. Ibid.

77. Timothy B. Clark, "Lobbyists at Work: Tax Lobbyists Scrambling in the Dark to Fight Taxes That Hit Their Clients," National Journal, May 22, 1982, pp. 896-901.

78. Ibid.; and Timothy B. Clark, "Tax-Raising Proposals Off and Running But Few Generate Strong Support," National Journal, April 3, 1982, pp. 576-80.

79. See Economist, "Back on the Ground," April 3, 1982, pp. 79-80.

80. Clark, "Tax-Raising Proposals Off and Running."

81. Ibid.; and CQA 1982, p. 34.

82. Clark, "Lobbyists at Work: Tax Lobbyists Scrambling in the Dark."

83. Richard E. Cohen, "Dole's Toughest Test as Finance Chief—Pushing a Tax Hike Through the Senate," National Journal, June 19, 1982, pp. 1089-93.

84. The surcharge idea that arose in the Gang of 17 negotiations had been abandoned.

85. CQA 1982, pp. 34-35; "GOP tax hike package takes edge off Democrats' thunder," National Journal, July 3, 1982, pp. 1203, 1229.

86. Peter McGrath et al., "A No-Fingerprints Tax Bill," Newsweek, August 9, 1982, pp. 16-17.

87. See, e.g., Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 356.

88. See, for example, Donald Regan, For the Record (New York: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1988), pp. 182-84.

89. Steven R. Weisman, "Reagan Presses for Tax Increase in Western Trip," New York Times, August 12, 1982, p. A1.

90. CQA 1982, pp. 37-38.

91. Rich Thomas, "Why Reagan Switched," Newsweek, August 23, 1982, p. 27.

92. Karen W. Arenson, "Measure Is Reformers' Delight," New York Times, August 17, 1982, Section 4, p. 17.

93. "Transcript of the President's Televised Speech on Tax Policy," New York Times, August 17, 1982, Section 4, p. 16.

94. Walter Isaacson, "Scoring on a Reverse," Time, August 30, 1982, pp. 14-18.

95. Ibid. provides a good summary. The administration and Chamber virtually went to war. Other business lobbyists described the Chamber's anti-TEFRA campaign as "really vicious," while some in the Chamber who opposed TEFRA claim that the administration tried to get the Chamber's board to fire its president.

96. CQA 1982, p. 39.

97. See CQA 1982, pp. 29-39; Isaacson, "Scoring on a Reverse"; Melinda Beck et al., "Winning One for the Gipper," Newsweek, August 30, 1982, pp. 24-28; Karen Arenson, "Congress Approves Bill to Raise $983 Billion in Taxes," pp. A1, D14; Hedrich Smith, "Reagan's Big Victory: Passage of the Tax-Rise Bill Vindicates Major Political Gamble by President," p. D14; and David Shribman, "How Bill's Momentum Swept House," p. D14; all in New York Times, August 20, 1982.