3— Reliance on Value Judgments in Repository Risk Assessment
1. I. S. Roxburgh, Geology of High-Level Nuclear Waste Disposal (New York: Chapman and Hall, 1987), 189.
2. See E. Nagel, The Structure of Science (New York: Hartcourt, Brace, and World, 1961), 13-105.
3. C. Hempel and P. Oppenheim, "Studies in the Logic of Explanation," Philosophy of Science 15 (1948): 135-175. R. B. Braithwaite, Scientific Explanation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1953). K. R. Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York: Basic Books, 1959).
4. See, for example, E. Reichard et al., Groundwater Contamination Risk Assessment (Oxfordshire, England: International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 1990), 101ff.; hereafter cited as: Reichard, GCRA.
5. Reichard, GCRA, 177-179. Much of this discussion of value judgments in quantitative risk assessment is based on K. S. Shrader-Frechette, Risk and Rationality (Berkeley, Los Angeles, London: University of California Press, 1991), 53-74; hereafter cited as: Risk . For a discussion of risk assessment and its components, see Shrader-Frechette, Risk , 5ff. For an analysis of needed improvements in risk assessment, see Shrader-Frechette, Risk , 169-219.
6. R. Rudner, "The Scientist Qua Scientist Makes Value Judgments," in Introductory Readings in the Philosophy of Science , ed. E. D. Klemke, R. Hollinger, and A. Kline (Buffalo: Prometheus Books, 1980), 236; B. Allen and K. Crump, "Aspects of Quantitative Risk Assessment as Applied to Cancer," in Quantitative Risk Assessment , ed. J. Humber and R. Almeder (Clifton, N.J.: Humana Press, 1987), 129-146.
7. C. Whipple, "Nonpessimistic Risk Assessment," in The Risk Assessment of Environmental and Human Health Hazards , ed. D. Paustenbach (New York: John Wiley, 1989), 1105-1120; U.S. NRC, Reactor Safety Study , Report no. (NUREG-75/014) WASH-1400 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975), 37; C. Starr and C. Whipple, "Risks of Risk Decisions," Science 208, no. 4448 (June 1980): 1116; B. Cohen and I. Lee, "A Catalog of Risks," Health Physics 36, no. 6 (1979): 707; W. Hafele, "Energy," in Science, Technology, and the Human Prospect , ed. C. Starr and P. Ritterbush (New York: Pergamon, 1979), 139; M. Maxey, "Managing Low-Level Radioactive Wastes," in Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management , ed. J. Watson (Williamsburg, Va.: Health Physics Society, 1979), 410, 417; B. Cohen, "Risk Analyses of Buried Wastes," in Paustenbach, Risk Assessment , 575; R. Andrews, "Environmental Impact Assessment and Risk Assessment," in Environmental Impact Assessment , ed. P. Wathern (London: Unwin Hyman, 1988), 85-97; S. Dreyfus, "Formal Models vs. Human Situational Understanding . . .," Technology and People 1 (1982): 61; D. MacLean, "Understanding the Nuclear Power Controversy," in Scientific Controversies , ed. A. Caplan and H. Engelhardt (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987), part V; L. Clarke, Acceptable Risk? (Berkeley, Los Angeles, London: University of California Press, 1989).
8. P. Ricci and A. Henderson, "Fear, Fiat, and Fiasco," in Phenotypic Variation in Populations , ed. A. Woodhead et al. (New York: Plenum, 1988), 285-293; R. Setlow, "Relevance of Phenotypic Variation in Risk," in Woodhead et al., 1-5.
9. M. Schneiderman, "Risk Assessment: Where Do We Want It To Go? What Do We Do To Make It Go There?" in Humber and Almeder, Quantitative Risk Assessment , 107-128; E. Foulkes, "Factors Determining Target Doses," in Hazard Assessment of Chemicals , ed. J. Saxena (New York: Taylor and Francis, 1989), 31-47.
10. K. Busch, "Statistical Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment," in Humber and Almeder, Quantitative Risk Assessment , 9-55; see also Setlow, "Relevance of Phenotypic Variation in Risk."
11. E. Reichard et al., Groundwater Contamination Risk Assessment (Oxfordshire, England: International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 1990), 177.
12. For discussion of the difficulties with "real risk" and with the distinction between "real risk" and "perceived risk," see, for example, W. Freudenburg, "Perceived Risk, Real Risk," Science 242 (October 7, 1988): 44-49; P. Slovic, "Perception of Risk," Science 23b (1987): 280-285; P. Slovic, B. Fischoff, and S. Liechtenstein, "Characterizing Perceived Risk," in Perilous Progress , ed. R. Kates, C. Hohemser, and H. Kasperson (Boulder: Westview, 1985); P. Slovic, B. Fischoff, and S. Liechtenstein, "Perception and Acceptability of Risk from Energy Systems," in Public Reactions to Nuclear Power , ed. W. Freudenburg and E. Rosa (Boulder: American Association for the Advancement of Science/Westview, 1984), 115-135; and K. Shrader-Frechette, Risk , 77-88.
13. For discussion of some of these other risk factors, see W. Freudenburg and T. Jones, "Attitudes and Stress in the Presence of Technological Risk," Social Forces 69, no. 4 (June 1991): 999-1024; J. Short, "Social Dimensions of Risk," The American Sociologist (Summer 1987): 167-172; J. Short, "The Social Fabric at Risk," American Sociological Review 49 (December 1984): 711-725; S. Rayner and R. Canton, "How Fair Is Safe Enough?" Risk Analysis 7, no. 1 (March 1987): 3-9; K. Shrader-Frechette, Risk , 89-168; K. Shrader-Frechette, Risk Analysis and Scientific Method (Boston: Kluwer/Reidel, 1985), 55-125; R. Dunlap, M. Kraft, and E. Rosa (eds.), The Public and Nuclear Waste: Citizens' Views of Repository Siting (Durham: Duke University Press, 1993).
14. H. Longino, "Comments on 'What's Wrong with Quantitative Risk Assessment?,'" remarks delivered at the Philosophy of Science Association Meeting, Pittsburgh, 24 October 1986, pp. 3-11; J. Fabrikant et al., Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Health Risks of Radon and Other Internally Deposited Alpha-Emitters: BEIR IV (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988); K. S. Shrader-Frechette, Nuclear Power and Public Policy (Boston: Reidel, 1983), 25-27; D. Paustenbach (ed.), The Risk Assessment of Environmental and Human Health Hazards (New York: John Wiley, 1989); J. Saxena (ed.), Hazard Assessment of Chemicals (New York: Taylor and Francis, 1989); A. Woodhead et al. (eds.), Phenotypic Variation in Populations (New York: Plenum, 1988).
15. Longino, "Comments," 3; J. Purdham, "Whose Life Is It Anyway?" At The Centre: The Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety 10, no. 1 (March 1987): 9; Foulkes, "Factors," 43ff.; Fabrikant, BEIR IV, 442ff.; Woodhead et al., Phenotypic Variation .
16. F. von Hippel and T. Cochran, "Chernobyl, The Emerging Story: Estimating Long-Term Health Effects," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 42, no. 7 (August/September 1986): 18-24 (note: this volume was originally misnumbered as vol. 43, no. 1 due to a misprint); E. Marshall, "Reactor Explodes Amid Soviet Silence," Science 232, no. 4752 (16 May 1986): 814-815.
17. D. Nebert, "Genes Encoding Drug-Metabolizing Enzymes," in Woodhead et al., Phenotypic Variation , 59.
18. L. Cox and P. Ricci, "Legal and Philosophical Aspects of Risk Analysis," in Paustenbach, Risk Assessment , 1038ff.; S. Samuels, "The Arrogance of Intellectual Power," in Woodhead et al., Phenotypic Variation , 113-120; K. S. Shrader-Frechette, Science Policy, Ethics, and Economic Methodology (Boston: Reidel, 1985), esp. chaps. 2, 5, 6, and 7.
19. V. Bond, "Causality of a Given Cancer After Known Radiation Exposure," in Hazards , ed. R. Kates et al. (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986), 24-43.
20. L.J. Carter, Nuclear Imperatives and Public Trust (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, 1987), 417.