1. H. W. Arndt, "The Origins of Structuralism," World Development 13, no. 2 (1985), 151-59; José Hodara, Prebisch y la CEPAL: Sustancia, trayectoria, y contexto institucional . México, D.F.: Colegio de México, 1987; Cristóbal Kay, Latin American Theories of Development and Underdevelopment . London: Routledge, 1989; Joseph L. Love, "The Origins of Dependency Analysis," Journal of Latin American Studies 22, no. 1 (1990), 143-68; Felipe Pazos, "Cincuenta años de pensamiento económico en la América Latina," El trimestre económico , no. 50 (1983), 1015-48, and Octavio Rodríguez, La teoría del subdesarrollo de la CEPAL . México, D.F.: Siglo XXI, 1980; Osvaldo Sunkel, ''The Development of Development Theory," in Transnational Capitalism and National Development , edited by José Villamil. Atlantic Highlands, N.J.: Hassocks, Harvester, 1979, 19-31; for a self-appraisal see Raúl Prebisch, "Five Stages in My Thinking on Development," in Pioneers in Development , edited by Gerald M. Meier and Dudley Seers. New York: Oxford University Press, 1984, 175-91.

2. The propositions are well set out in Octavio Rodríguez, Teoría del subdesarrollo , and Edgardo Floto, "The Center-Periphery System and Unequal Exchange," CEPAL Review 39 (1989), 135-54; institutional history can be found in Gabriel Guzmán, El desarrollo latinoamericano y la CEPAL . Barcelona: Editorial Planeta, 1976, and Hodara, Prebisch y la CEPAL .

3. Karl Mannheim, Estado y planificación demócratica , México, D.F.: Fondo de Cultura Economica, 1945, stresses the role of the intelligentsia in moments of crisis. The contemporary influence of this book in Latin America is noted by Furtado, A fantasia organizada .

4. Karin Kock, International Trade Policy and the GATT, 1947-1967 . Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell, 1969.

5. League of Nations, Economic Stability in the Postwar Period . Geneva: League of Nations, 1945.

6. Colin Clark, The Conditions of Economic Progress . London: Macmillan, 1940.

7. J. Fred Rippy, Latin America and the Industrial Age . New York: Putnam, 1947.

8. Eugene Staley, World Economy in Transition . New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1939; idem, World Economic Development . Montreal: International Labour Office, 1944.

9. Staley, World Economy , 70.

10. Francis Paul Walters, A History of the League of Nations . Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1952.

11. Xavier Alcalde, The Idea of Third World Development . Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1987, 120.

12. See Abba Lerner, "Economic Liberalization in the Postwar World," in Postwar Economic Problems , edited by Seymour Edwin Harris. New York: McGraw Hill, 1943, 71-103.

13. E. V. K. FitzGerald, "A Note on Income Distribution, Accumulation, and Recovery in the Depression," in Latin America in the 1930s: The Role of the Periphery in World Crisis , edited by Rosemary Thorp. London: Macmillan, 1984, 242-78. On the impact of inflation see Rosemary Thorp, "The Latin American Economies in the 1940s," this volume.

14. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, "Series históricas del crecimiento de América Latina." Cuadernos estadísticos de la CEPAL , no. 3. Santiago: CEPAL, 1978.

15. Richard Lynn Ground, "The Genesis of Import Substitution in Latin America," CEPAL Review 36 (1988), 179-203.

16. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, Economic Survey of Latin America , 1948 . New York: United Nations, 1949: idem, Economic Survey of Latin America , 1949. New York: United Nations, 1951.

17. Carlos F. Díaz-Alejandro, "The 1940s in Latin America," in Economic Structure and Performance , edited by M. Syrquin, L. Taylor, and L. E. Westphal. New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1984, 341-62.

18. Daniel Cosío-Villegas, American Extremes . Austin: University of Texas Press, 1964.

19. Simon Gabriel Hanson, Economic Development of Latin America . Washington, D.C.: Interamerican Affairs Press, 1951; William Adams Brown and Redvers Opie, American Foreign Assistance . Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1954.

20. Cosío-Villegas, American Extremes .

21. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, Report on the First Session of the ECLA, 7-25 June 1948 . New York: United Nations, 1953.

22. Alcalde, Third World Development , 179.

23. Phyllis Deane, The State and the Economic System: An Introduction to the History of Political Economy . Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989.

24. Octavio Rodríguez, "On the Conception of the Center-Periphery System," CEPAL Review 3, (1977), 195-239.

25. Kurt Mandelbaum, The Industrialization of Backward Areas . Oxford: Blackwell, 1945: Friedrich List, The National System of Political Economy . London: Longman, 1909 (first published in Geneva, 1844).

26. Werner Sombart, Der Moderne Capitalismus . Munich and Leipzig: Dünscker und Humblut, 1928.

27. Martin Jay, The Dialectical Imagination: A History of the Frankfurt School and the Institute of Social Research, 1923-1950 . London: Heinemann, 1973.

28. Mihail Manoïlescu, The Theory of Protection and International Trade . London: King, 1931.

29. Love, Dependency Analysis .

30. My translation from the Spanish edition of Werner Sombart, El apogeo del capitalismo . México, D.F.: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1946, 3: 10.

31. Ernest Friedrich Wagemann, Evolución y ritmo de la economía mundial . Barcelona: Editorial Labor, 1933. On the influence of Wagemann in Latin America see Hodara, Prebisch y la CEPAL , and on that of Manoïlescu see Joseph L. Love, "Manoïlescu, Prebisch, and the Thesis of Unequal Exchange," Rumanian Studies 5 (1980-1986), 125-33.

32. Aldo Antonio Dadone and Luis Eugenio di Marco, "The Impact of Prebisch's Ideas on Modern Economic Analysis," in International Economics and Development: Essays in Honor of Raúl Prebisch , edited by Luis Eugenio di Marco. New York: Academic Press, 1972, 15-34.

33. Adolfo Dorfman, Desarrollo industrial en la Argentina . Buenos Aires: Escuela de Estudios Argentinos, 1942 (republished in 1970 as Historia de la industria argentina . Buenos Aires: Solar Hachette); Alejandro E. Bunge, Una nueva Argentina . Buenos Aires: Kraft, 1940. For discussion of this particular debate see Juan Carlos Korol and Hilda Sabato, "Incomplete Industrialization: An Argentine Obsession," Latin American Research Review 25, no. 1 (1990), 7-30; and for the context of Argentine economic nationalism see David Rock, Authoritarian Argentina: The Nationalist Movement, Its History, and Its Impact . Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1993.

34. Carlos H. Waisman, The Reversal of Development in Argentina . Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987.

35. Roger Blackhouse, A History of Modern Economic Analysis . Oxford: Blackwell, 1985. The contemporary liberal critique of international economic management is well represented by Albert O. Hirschman, Power and International Trade . Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1945, and W. Arthur Lewis, Economic Survey, 1919-1939 . London: George Allen and Unwin, 1949. For contemporary views on late industrialization see Paul N. Rosenstein-Rodan, "Industrialization of Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Economic Journal 53, no. 3 (1943), 202-11.

36. Pazos, Pensamiento económico ; Victor L. Urquidi, "La postguerra y las relaciones economicas internacionales de Mexico," El Trimestre Económico 11, no. 2, (1944), 20-345; Victor L. Urquidi and Ernesto Fernández-Hurtado, "Diversos tipos de disequilibrio económico internacional," El Trimestre Económico 13, no. 1 (1946), 1-33.

37. Roy F. Harrod, The Life of John Maynard Keynes . London: Macmillan, 1951; Raúl Prebisch, Introducción a Keynes . México, D.F.: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1947. See also Aldo Ferrer, "The Early Teaching of Raúl Prebisch," CEPAL Review 42 (1990), 27-34. who states that Prebisch was one of the first economists to recognize the Keynesian revolution and make it known in Latin America.

38. Furtado. A fantasia organizada .

39. Alcalde, Third World Development ; David H. Pollock, "Some Changes in United States Attitudes toward CEPAL over the Past Thirty Years," CEPAL Review 6 (1978), 57-80.

40. Hodara, Prebisch y la CEPAL .

41. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, Economic Survey of Latin America, 1948 . New York: United Nations, 1949.

42. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America. Economic Survey of Latin America, 1949 . New York: United Nations, 1951; Raúl Prebisch, The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems . New York: United Nations, 1949.

43. Pollock, "United States Attitudes"; Hodara, Prebisch y la CEPAL .

44. Economic Commission for Latin America, Survey 1949 , xix. For a remarkably similar model derived from the statistical analysis in League of Nations, Economic Stability , see Hans Singer, "The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries," American Economic Review 40, no. 2 (1950), 473-85.

45. Economic Commission for Latin America, Survey 1948 , 15.

46. Furtado, A fantasia organizada , lists the authors of these appendixes, including himself on Brazil and Víctor Urquidi on Mexico.

47. The data have since been revised in United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, The Economic Development of Latin America in the Postwar Period , New York: United Nations, 1964, but the figures presented here reflect contemporary perceptions and thus are more relevant to the argument of this chapter.

48. Rodríguez, Teoría del subdesarrollo ; Raúl Prebisch, Algunos problemas teóricos y

prácticos del crecimiento económico . Santiago: Comisión Económica para América Latina, 1951.

49. Furtado, A fantasia organizada , 76-80.

50. Economic Commission for Latin America, First Session of the ECLA .

51. Rodríguez, Teoría del subdesarrollo .

52. For an algebraic formulation see Floto, "The Center-Periphery System." The essence of this approach had been earlier stated by Urquidi; see note 36.

53. "The peripheral countries have no means of absorbing the surplus of their gainfully employed population except by developing their own industrial activity." Economic Commission for Latin America, Survey 1949, 49.

54. Werner Baer, "The Economics of Prebisch and the ECLA." Economic Development and Cultural Change 10, no. 2 (1962), 169-82. See also M. June Flanders, "Prebisch on Protectionism: An Evaluation," Economic Journal 74, no. 294 (1964), 305-26.

55. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, "The Originality of the Copy: CEPAL and the Idea of Development," CEPAL Review 4 (1977), 7-40; Jacob Viner, International Trade and Economic Development . Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1952; Gottfried Harberler, "Los términos de intercambio y el desarrollo económico," in El desarrollo económico y América Latina , edited by Howard Ellis. México, D.F.: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1960, 325-62.

56. Furtado, A fantasia organizada , 61-62.

57. Rodríguez, Teoría del subdesarrollo .

58. Cf. Viner, International Trade , and Harberler, Términos de intercambio , respectively; according to Furtado ( A fantasia organizada , 140), Viner had debated this theme with Manoïlescu too.

59. Cf. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, Economic Survey, 1951-1952 . New York: United Nations, 1953.

60. As for instance Kay does in his otherwise excellent survey of modern social theories in Latin America. Cf. Kay, Latin American Theories .

61. Albert O. Hirschman, "Ideologies of Economic Development in Latin America," in Latin American Issues: Essays and Comments , edited by Albert O. Hirschman, 3-42. New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1961, 3-42.

62. Prebisch, "Five Stages"; Dadone and di Marco, "The impact of Prebisch's ideas"; Guzmán, El desarrollo .

63. Sunkel, "The Development of Development Theory."

64. Cardoso, "The Originality of the Copy"; Aníbal Pinto and J. Kñákal, "The Center-Periphery System Twenty Years Later," in di Marco International Economics , 97-128.

65. Rodríguez, La teoría del subdesarrollo .

66. Furtado, A fantasia organizada , 62.

67. Pollock, "United States Attitudes"; Kay, Latin American Theories .

68. Prebisch "Five Stages," 176.

69. Prebisch, "Five Stages."

70. Alexander Gerschenkron, "History of Economic Doctrines and Economic History," American Economic Review 59, no. 2 (1969), 1-17.

71. Singer, "Distribution of Gains"; Baer, "The Economics of Prebisch."

72. Furtado ( A fantasia organizada , ch. 4) claims to have "conceived" this idea himself in 1949. This may be so, but the concept is not a new one: for example, see the elaboration of Marx's formulation in Mandelbaum, Industrialization , written five years earlier. "The Law of Comparative Costs is just as valid in countries with surplus labor as it is in others. But whereas in the latter it is a valid foundation of arguments for free trade, in the former it is an equally valid foundation for arguments for protection." W. Arthur Lewis, "Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour," Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 22, no. 1 (1956), 139-91.

73. Osvaldo Sunkel, "La inflación chilena: Un enfoque heterodoxo," El trimestre económico 25 (1958), 570-99; Aníbal Pinto, Chile: Un caso de desarrollo frustrado . Santiago: Editorial Universitaria, 1958.

74. Carlos Bazdresch, El pensamiento de Juan Noyola . México, D.F.: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1984; E. V. K. FitzGerald, "Kalecki on the Financing of Development," Cambridge Journal of Economics 14, no. 2 (1990), 183-203; Arndt, "The Origins of Structuralism"; Guzmán, El desarrollo .

75. Samir Amin, Accumulation on a World Scale . New York: Monthly Review Press, 1974; Arghiri Emmanuel, Unequal Exchange . London: New Left Books, 1972.

76. Anthony P. Thirlwall, "A General Model of Growth and Development on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers 38, no. 2 (1986), 199-219.

77. Oscar Braun, Comercio internacional e imperialismo . Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI, 1973.

78. Ground, "The Genesis of Import Substitution."

79. José Antonio Ocampo, "New Economic Thinking in Latin America," Journal of Latin American Studies 22, no. 1 (1990), 169-81.

I wish to thank my research assistants, Lisa Baldez and Susanne Wagner, for their help with this project. Charles Bergquist, Stephen Brager, Thomas Davies, and Rosemary Thorp made valuable comments on the manuscript.