1. See Martin Tolchin, "O'Neill Attacks Balanced Budget As Other Democrats Pursue Cuts," New York Times, March 6, 1980, pp. A1, A17.

2. Timothy B. Clark, "Carter takes aim at deeper cuts in '81 budget," National Journal, March 8, 1980, pp. 409-10.

3. Timothy B. Clark, "Defense Spending: Something Has to Give," National Journal, May 17, 1980, p. 805. According to former Defense Secretary Melvin Laird, 60 percent of army recruits in 1979 fell below the national average for intelligence. Moreover, the number of noncommissioned officers who remained in the services plummeted.

4. Timothy Clark and Richard E. Cohen, "Balancing the Budget a Test for Congress—Can It Resist the Pressures to Spend?" National Journal, April 12, 1980, pp. 588—91, 593—94; Congressional Quarterly Almanac 1980, Vol. 36, 1980 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1981), p. 111 (hereafter CQA 1980).

5. Giaimo had become very worried about the deficit. After he retired, he founded a lobbying group, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and throughout 1980 took a hard line against social spending.

6. See Barbara Sinclair, Majority Leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), p. 182.

7. Clark and Cohen, "Balancing the Budget a Test for Congress," National Journal, April 12, 1980.

8. CQA 1980, p. 111; Art Pine and Peter Behr, "House Unit Votes To Slash Budget By $16.4 Billion," Washington Post, March 21, 1980, pp. A1, A2.

9. CQA 1980, p. 110.

10. Ibid., p. 111.

11. Art Pine, "Republicans Seek Sharper Spending Cuts," Washington Post, March 30, 1980, p. A7.

12. See Sinclair, Majority Leadership, esp. p. 184; CQA 1980, p. 114; and Merrill Sheils et al., "Heading for a Classic Bust?" Newsweek, April 14, 1980, pp. 77, 83.

13. Sinclair, Majority Leadership, p. 184; CQA 1980, p. 114.

14. Ibid.

15. CQA 1980, pp. 112-14; Helen Dewar, "Price Support for Tobacco Feeds Sacred Senate Cow," April 3, 1980, p. A4, and "Budget Panel Would Slash Bureaucracy," April 4, 1980, pp. A1, A4, Washington Post.

16. CQA 1980, pp. 108-19.

17. CQA 1980, p. 118.

18. Sinclair, Majority Leadership, p. 185; CQA 1980, p. 118. We will never know whether the contradictory votes occurred because some Democrats went home after the budget resolution was defeated or because members really did not support any resolution. If everybody had been there, the vote on Latta's motion should have been very close; fifty-eight Democrats supported Latta as it was, so he had to have a good chance of winning.

19. Allen Schick, Reconciliation and the Congressional Budget Process (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1981), p. 7.

20. Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, Section 301(b)(2), as amended.

21. Congressional Quarterly Almanac 1979, Vol. 35 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1980), p. 181 (hereafter CQA 1979).

22. Congressional Record, May 7, 1980, p. HR10159.

23. Ibid., pp. HR10157-58.

24. Ibid., p. HR10173.

25. Ibid.

26. Ibid., p. HR10165.

27. Ibid., p. HR10167.

28. Ibid., p. HR10168.

29. Ibid., p. HR10174.

30. Ibid.

31. Ibid., p. HR10176. David Obey argued they should reconcile to call the budget balancers' bluff, showing by example that balance wouldn't help.

32. Sheils, "Heading for a Classic Bust?"

33. "Turmoil on the Money Front," Time, March 31, 1980, p. 48.

34. David Pauly et al., "The Credit Crunch Is On," Newsweek, March 31, 1980, pp. 52-56. See also "American Cars: Carter's No Help," The Economist, July 12, 1980, pp. 70-71.

35. Ibid.

36. Harry Anderson et al., "Gauging the Depth of the Slump," Newsweek, May 5, 1980, pp. 75, 77.

37. Ibid.

38. Helen Dewar, "Senate Opens Debate on '81 Spending," Washington Post, May 6, 1980, p. A16.

39. "Budget Boilerplate and Restraint," editorial, Washington Post, May 5, 1980, p. A20.

40. Joanne Omang, "Welfare Plans in Danger in 1981, Byrd Predicts," Washington Post, May 4, 1980, p. A18.

41. Richard J. Levine, Robert W. Merry, and Brooks Jackson, "Slump's Shadow," Wall Street Journal, May 2, 1980, pp. 1, 25.

42. Gallup Poll, 1980, Survey #151-G, Reported April 8 and April 10, 1980, pp. 83-95.

43. Ibid.; and Allan Mayer et al., "Reagan's Crossovers," Newsweek, April 14, 1980, p. 27.

44. Gallup Poll, 1980, Chronology Section, pp. l-liii.

45. "The Bad News Gets Worse," Time, June 16, 1980, pp. 64-65.

46. Ibid.

47. Helen Dewar, "Recession May Unravel the Budget Congress Forged, Causing New Woes," Washington Post, June 15, 1980, p. A14.

48. Time, June 16, 1980, p. 18, "Yahoo! Congress bars a gas tax."

49. See Nelson Polsby and Aaron Wildavsky, Presidential Elections, 7th ed. (New York: Free Press, 1988).

50. Edwin Warner, "Marketable Baskets of Issues," Time, August 25, 1980, pp. 28-29.

51. See Bernard Asbell, The Senate Nobody Knows (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978), various passages, on how Senator Muskie came to oppose jobs spending.

52. "An Unemployment Wallop," Time, May 12, 1980, pp. 54-55. See also Asbell, Senate Nobody Knows; Harry Anderson et al., "Out of Work: Who's Next?" Newsweek, June 16, 1980, pp. 66-70; "The Budget Resolution," editorial, Washington Post, June 13, 1980, p. A18 (among many); and the comments of Carter's supposedly most liberal adviser, Stuart Eisenstadt, National Journal, May 17, 1980, p. 805.

53. Sinclair, Majority Leadership, p. 187.

54. Allan Mayer et al., "Reagan's Tax-Cut Ploy," Newsweek, July 7, 1980, p. 20.

55. Art Pine, "Jittery Senate Democrats Rush Own Tax Cut," Washington Post, June 27, 1980, pp. A1, A4.

56. Ibid.

57. Ibid.

58. "Opening the Tax Battle," Time, July 7, 1980, pp. 8-9.

59. Walter Heller, "Piercing the Budgetary Fog," Wall Street Journal, June 30, 1980, p. 12.

60. "Two for the Tax Cut Seesaw," editorial, Washington Post, June 7, 1980, p. A14.

61. "Opening the Tax Battle," Time, July 7, 1980.

62. Carter, Keeping Faith, p. 539.

63. Ibid., pp. 540, 541.

64. John M. Berry, "Surplus Evaporates—$25-30 Billion Deficit Seen," Washington Post, July 15, 1980, pp. A1, A6.

65. Carter, Keeping Faith, pp. 540-41.

66. John M. Berry, "Recession, Defense Seen Widening '80 Deficit to $61 billion," Washington Post, July 22, 1980, pp. F1, F5.

67. Gallup Poll, 1980, p. 159.

68. David S. Broder, "A Bleak Projection for the President," Washington Post, August 9, 1980, p. A5.

69. Kenneth H. Bacon, "Carter's Programs," Wall Street Journal, August 29, 1980, p. 1.

70. Kenneth H. Bacon, "A Big Role for Uncle Sam," Wall Street Journal, September 3, 1980, p. 22.

71. See ibid.; "An Economic Dream in Peril," Newsweek, September 8, 1980, pp. 50-52; and Herbert Stein, "Beyond the Reagan Tax Cut," Wall Street Journal, November 25, 1980, p. 22.

72. Helen Dewar, "Senate Budget Unit Rejects Tax Cut in 1981 Spending Plan," Washington Post, August 22, 1980, p. A5. Also, interviews.

73. CQA 1980, p. 120.

74. Lindley H. Clarke, Jr., "Recession's End?" Wall Street Journal, September 15, 1980, pp. 1, 18.

75. Christopher Byron, "Slow Rebound from Recession," Time, Sept. 29, 1980, pp. 56-58.

76. Greider, Secrets of the Temple, p. 194.

77. Ibid., p. 204.

78. Ibid., pp. 193-213.

79. "Cautious Optimism: Many Executives Say Slump Is Over, but See Only a Slow Recovery," Wall Street Journal, October 22, 1980, pp. 1, 24.

80. Greider, Secrets of the Temple, pp. 214-18; and Kenneth H. Bacon, "Ready Reserve: Fed Vowing to Retain 'Tight Money' Policies, Prepares for Criticism," Wall Street Journal, August 4, 1980, pp. 1, 11.

81. Kenneth H. Bacon, "Reducing the Heat: Better Economic News Helps Smother Flames of Fed-Carter Dispute," Wall Street Journal, October 6, 1980, pp. 1, 17.

82. CQA 1980, p. 90.

83. Helen Dewar, "Hill May Put Off Voting On Money Till After Election," Washington Post, September 18, 1980, p. A15; and CQA 1980, pp. 170-71.

84. Previously the government let employees work and then passed appropriations in time for their payday. Civiletti ruled that work created an obligation and thus spending, before the outlay; hence, appropriations had to precede employment. But he let this new rule slide in areas where immediate consequences might be truly dire (e.g., the military).

85. Helen Dewar, "Abortion Compromise Leads to Restoration of U.S. Spending," Washington Post, October 2, 1980, p. A2; and Dewar, "Senate Moving Sluggishly Toward Stop-Gap Funding," Washington Post, September 27, 1980, p. A12.

86. Helen Dewar, "Lame-Duck Session on Budget Foreseen," Washington Post, August 1, 1980, p. A11. CQA 1980, pp. 124-30, tells the reconciliation story in detail.

87. See Helen Dewar, "House Panel Sets Spending Ceiling, Brushes Aside Protests by Republicans," Washington Post, November 12, 1980, p. A2; and Dewar, "Tax Cut Bill Squelched," Washington Post, November 13, 1980, pp. A1, A2.

88. Robert W. Merry, "GOP Swings Wild In Initial Bout With Budget Champ," Wall Street Journal, November 14, 1980, p. 28.

89. Dewar, "Tax Cut Bill Squelched," Washington Post, November 13, 1980; CQA 1980, p. 123; and Dewar, "$632.4 Billion Budget Cleared," Washington Post, November 20, 1980, pp. A1, A17.

90. Helen Dewar, "Hill's Budget Process Grows Stronger With Every Passing Deficit," Washington Post, November 23, 1980, p. A6; Richard L. Lyons, "On Capitol Hill: Congress Passes Hastily Drawn Fiscal '81 Budget," Washington Post, November 21, 1980, p. A18; and CQA 1980, p. 123.

91. Lyons, "On Capitol Hill"; and CQA 1980, p. 123.

92. CQA 1980, p. 130.

93. Ibid., p. 124.

94. "Reagan Would Hike Arms Funds 7%," Washington Post, October 28, 1980, p. A2.

95. CQA 1980, pp. 185-97.

96. Ibid., pp. 210-17.

97. Ibid., pp. 220-21.

98. See Helen Dewar, "Senate Retreats on Pay, Busing," Washington Post, December 11, 1980, pp. A1, A4; and CQA 1980, pp. 220-21.

99. Helen Dewar and Richard L. Lyons, "U.S. Agencies Run Out of Money as Spending Bill is Deadlocked," Washington Post, December 16, 1980, p. A8.

100. CQA 1980, p. 222.

101. Dewar and Lyons, "U.S. Agencies Run Out of Money," Washington Post, December 16, 1980.

102. George C. Wilson, "Carter, Cutting Pentagon's Budget Request, Grants Extra $6.2 Billion," Washinton Post, December 27, 1980, p. A7.

103. The memo, which we discuss in the next chapter, is included as an appendix to William Greider, The Education of David Stockman and Other Americans (New York: Dutton, 1982).

104. Kenneth H. Bacon, "Fast Start: Reagan Economic Blitz to Get High Priority Despite Stiff Obstacles," Wall Street Journal, November 26, 1980, p. 1.

105. Alexander Taylor, "Waiting for Reaganomics," Time, November 24, 1980, pp. 84-85.