1. See Savage, Balanced Budgets, appendix, p. 266.

2. Ibid.

3. George J. Church, "How Reagan Decides," Time, December 13, 1982, pp. 12-17.

4. Ibid.

5. "Interview with President Reagan: 'The recovery may just be better than we think,'" Business Week, February 14, 1983, pp. 119, 121-122.

6. Ibid.

7. Soma Golden, "Superstar of the New Economists," New York Times Magazine, March 23, 1980, pp. 30-33, 91-95.

8. Ibid.

9. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, pp. 356-57.

10. Ibid., p. 358. The joke involves a boy who on Christmas morning receives as a present a gigantic pile of horse manure. Rather than being upset, he immediately sets to digging through the pile. Asked why, he replies, "With all this horse manure, there has to be a pony in here somewhere!" Reagan expressed his skepticism of projections publicly many times. That is a convenient stance; therefore reports of private discussions are better evidence of his position.

11. Ibid., pp. 358-60.

12. See George Reedy, The Twilight of the Presidency (New York: New American Library, 1987) for a description of the dynamic under a very different president, Lyndon Baines Johnson.

13. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, p. 362.

14. Ibid., pp. 362-64.

15. John Berry, "Interest Rates Are Still the Key," Washington Post, January 9, 1983, pp. G1, G17; David Hoffman, "Reagan Advisers Consider Tax Rises in Future Budgets," Washington Post, January 9, 1983, pp. A1, A9.

16. See "A Bi-Partisan Appeal To Resolve the Budget Crisis," Washington Post, January 20, 1983, pp. A14-15.

17. Table 11, for example, shows only a $39 billion increase in the deficit from policy in FY84, while the Bi-Partisan Appeal required around $100 billion in FY84 contraction. Table from Mills and Palmer, Deficit Dilemma, p. 22.

18. George J. Church, "'A Little Terrifying,'" Time, January 17, 1983, p. 10. Ross K. Baker, "Institutional Norms or Party Discipline?: The Punishment of Phil Gramm," typescript, emphasizes the violation of House norms based on interviews with fourteen members of the House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee.

19. Helen Dewar, "Reagan's Program Attacked," Washington Post, January 27, 1983, pp. A1, A7.

20. Walter Isaacson, "Mending and Bending," Time, February 7, 1983, pp. 12-14.

21. Walter Isaacson, "Clashes and Compromises," Time, February 14, 1983, pp. 13-14.

22. "A Newsweek Poll: Arms Wrestling," Newsweek, January 31, 1983, p. 17.

23. "Why some executives are cooling on Reagan," Business Week, February 21, 1983, p. 19.

24. Thomas Edsall and Spencer Rich, "Conable, Dole Oppose Tax Hike Plan," Washington Post, January 19, 1983, pp. A1, A4.

25. Thomas Edsall, "Rostenkowski Asks Tax Freeze," Washington Post, February 9, 1983, pp. A1, A6; Thomas Edsall, "Rostenkowski Enrages O'Neill on Tax Stance," Washington Post, February 10, 1983, p. A4.

26. CQA 1983, pp. 261-64; Harry Anderson et al., "The Push for a Jobs Program," Newsweek, January 17, 1983, p. 53.

27. Walter Isaacson, "Searching for the Recovery," Time, February 21, 1983, pp. 16-17

28. They reasoned that a separate bill for these would allow the House to attach yet another "jobs" package.

29. The Treasury claimed that the banks wanted to hold onto the money for their own use.

30. Paul Taylor, "Banks Use Psychology to Stoke Savers' Rebellion," Washington Post, March 20, 1983, pp. A1, A6.

31. Helen Dewar, "Jobs Bill Imperiled in Senate," Washington Post, March 11, 1983, p. A1.

32. Thomas Edsall, "Demos Boost Banks in Tax Battle With Dole," Washington Post, March 12, 1983, p. A8.

33. Helen Dewar, "President———Bank Tax Lobbying," Washington Post, March 12, 1983, pp. A1, A8; "On and Off," Time, March 21, 1983, p. 18.

34. "No Line of Credit," Time, March 28, 1983, p. 19; CQA 1983, pp. 261-64.

35. CQA 1983, pp. 261-64.

36. Jonathan Alter et al., "Behind the Banks' Victory," Newsweek, May 2, 1983, p. 28.

37. "Voting the Bankers' Way," Time, May 30, 1983, pp. 12-13.

38. Thomas B. Edsall, "Senate Panel Approves Withholding Repeal," Washington Post, May 26, 1983, p. A9.

39. "Exercises in Make-Believe," Time, June 27, 1983, p. 19.

40. See CQA 1983, pp. 435-37; Richard E. Cohen, "What a Difference a Year—and an Election—Make in Producing a Budget," National Journal, April 2, 1983, pp. 696-99.

41. Ed Magnuson, "Uproar Over Arms Control," Time, January 24, 1983, pp. 16-18.

42. Walter Isaacson, "The Winds of Reform," Time, March 7, 1983, pp. 12-16, 23, 26-30. Unattributed quotes below are from that report. See James Fallows, The National Defense (New York: Random House, 1981), for the basic critique.

43. Barton Gellman, "Saga of the World's Costliest Plastic Cap," Washington Post, August 21, 1983, pp. A1, A6.

44. See Aaron Wildavsky, The New Politics of the Budgetary Process (Glenview, Ill./Boston: Scott, Foresman/Little Brown, 1987), chap. 6, for different sides of the story.

45. Walter Isaacson, "Reagan for the Defense," Time, April 4, 1983, pp. 8-19.

46. Michael Reese et al., "Reagan on the Defense," Newsweek, April 18, 1983, pp. 22-24.

47. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, pp. 369-70; CQA 1983, p. 439.

48. Reese et al., "Reagan on the Defense."

49. Helen Dewar, "Stockman Issues Blunt Warning: Budget Agreement Called Vital," Washington Post, April 19, 1983, pp. A1, A6.

50. Ibid.; Ed Magnuson, "Feuding in the Family," Time, May 2, 1983, pp. 12-14.

51. Helen Dewar, "Conservatives Rebuff Reagan on Budget Counter-Offer," Washington Post, April 21, 1983, p. A4.

52. Helen Dewar, "Senate Panel Defies Reagan," Washington Post, April 22, 1983, pp. A1, A7; Richard E. Cohen, "Political and Fiscal Blood May Flow Before Battle of 1984 Budget Is Over," National Journal, April 30, 1983, pp. 898-900; Magnuson, "Feuding in the Family."

53. Howard H. Baker, Jr., "We Will Pass a Budget Resolution," Washington Post, May 15, 1983, p. B8; and Scott Matheson and Jim Thompson, "The States Need a Resolution Now," Washington Post, May 15, 1983, p. B8.

54. Helen Dewar, "House GOP Vows Help for Reagan's Tax Cuts," Washington Post, April 29, 1983, p. A4.

55. Ed Magnuson, "Going Into the Trenches," Time, May 30, 1983, pp. 12-14.

56. Votes are all from Congressional Record, May 19, 1983.

57. Mark Starr et al., "Congress: Falling on Its Face?" Newsweek, June 20, 1983, p. 23.

58. "Budget Deal," Time, July 4, 1983, p. 19.

59. CQA 1983, p. 447.

60. "Tough Talk from Dole," Time, August 15, 1983, p. 13.

61. Timothy B. Clark and Richard E. Cohen, "Coming Up Empty-Handed, National Journal, November 26, 1983, pp. 2460-69.

62. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, pp. 371-73.

63. Helen Dewar, "Democrats' Tight-Fisted Spending Bill Snags Their Welfare Aims," September 22, 1983, p. A3; Dewar, "Senate Votes to Cut U. N. Contribution," September 23, 1983, pp. A1, A4; Dewar, "Stopgap Funding Bill Is Put on Fast Track," September 28, 1983, P. A4; and Dewar, "Senate, Wooing Reagan, Votes Against More Education Spending," October 5, 1983, p. A2; all in Washington Post.

64. Richard E. Cohen, "Plan to curb deficits by capping COLAs could set off a battle royal," National Journal, August 13, 1983, pp. 1671, 1699.

65. Starr et al., "Congress: Failing on Its Face?"

66. Thomas W. Lippman, "Regan Says President Would Veto a Reduction of July 1 Tax Cut," Washington Post, June 15, 1983, p. A3.

67. Richard E. Cohen, "Senate Republican Control May Be Put to Test by Tough Issues this Fall," National Journal, September 10, 1983, pp. 1824-29.

68. Timothy B. Clark, "Cracks Appear in Business's United Front in Opposition to Tax Boosts," National Journal, July 16, 1983, pp. 1493-96.

69. Mark Starr, "Doing Nothing About Deficits," Newsweek, August 15, 1983, pp. 20-22.

70. Ibid.

71. Richard E. Cohen, "Choosing Their Poison," National Journal, October 15, 1983, p. 2121.

72. CQA 1983, p. 233.

73. Cohen, "Choosing Their Poison."

74. Ibid.; and Cohen and Clark, "Coming Up Empty-Handed."

75. CQA 1983, pp. 235-36.

76. Ibid., pp. 529-30; Clark and Cohen, "Coming Up Empty-Handed"; T. R. Reid, "Leaders Spurned As House Defeats Spending Measure," Washington Post, November 9, 1983, p. A8; Susan Tifft, "Cowering Before the Deficit," Time, November 21, 1983, pp. 23, 26.

77. Clark and Cohen, "Coming Up Empty-Handed."

78. Helen Dewar and Martha M. Hamilton, "House Refuses to Consider a Tax Increase," Washington Post, November 18, 1983, pp. A1, A4; Ed Magnuson, "'We're Unable to Act,'" Time, November 28, 1983, pp. 18-20; Clark and Cohen, "Coming Up Empty-Handed"; CQA 1983, p. 236.

79. Clark and Cohen, "Coming Up Empty-Handed."

80. Helen Dewar, "Senate Marks Time As Debt Deadline Nears," Washington Post, October 30, 1983, p. A4.

81. Helen Dewar, "Reagan Threatens Veto In Debt Ceiling Battle," Washington Post, November 2, 1983, p. A6.

82. Ibid.

83. Helen Dewar, "Deficit-Reduction Plan Torpedoed by Reagan," Washington Post, November 4, 1983, p. A2.

84. Helen Dewar, "Senate Presses On in Quest to Cut Deficit," Washington Post, November 5, 1983, p. A4.

85. Ibid.

86. Dewar, "Deficit Reduction Plan Torpedoed by Reagan."

87. Harry Anderson et al., "Congress Fiddles, The Deficits Burn," Newsweek, November 21, 1983, pp. 81-82.

88. Dewar and Hamilton, "House Refuses to Consider a Tax Increase"; Helen Dewar and David Hoffman, "Deficit-Cutting Drive Resumes," Washington Post, November 16, 1983, pp. A1, A10; Magnuson, "'We're Unable to Act'"; Clark and Cohen, "Coming Up Empty-Handed"; CQA 1983, p. 287.

89. CQA 1983, p. 241.

90. Magnuson, "'We're Unable to Act.'"