1. World Bank projections for developing-country GDP growth for 1980-1985 were substantially higher every year than the actual growth rates. Bank projections, published in annual World Development Reports (New York: Oxford University Press, various years), were 5.1 percent (high case). and 4.4 percent (low case) for GNP in 1980; 5.3 percent (high) and 4.1 percent (low) in 1981; 5.7 percent (high) and 4.5 percent (low) for 1980-1990 in 1982; 4.5 percent (average) for 1982-1985 in 1983; 2.8 percent (average) in 1984; 3.0 percent (average) in 1985; and 3.3 percent (average) in 1986. In 1986 the United Nations calculated GDP growth for developing countries from 1980 to 1984 at 0.8 percent and for 1985 at 2.0 percent. See World Bank, World Development Reports for 1980 (pp. 11, 99); 1981 (p. 15); 1982 (p. 37); 1983 (p. 27); 1984 (p. 35); 1985 (p. 138); and 1986 (p. 44). See also UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report, 1986 , 1986, p. 150.

2. United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, World Economic Survey 1986: Current Trends and Policies in the World Economy , 1986, p. 12. Output in China grew annually at an average rate of 9.8 percent (1981 to 1985).

3. Ibid., p. 45.

4. Louis Kraar, "Reheating Asia's 'Little Dragons,'" Fortune (May 26, 1986): 134.

5. See articles by James Clad in Far Eastern Economic Review : "Trade-Zone Benefits Built on Shifting Sand" (February 14, 1985): 89; "Call for New Carrots" (February 28, 1985): 86-87; and ''Penang Road to Growth on Shifting Foundations" (September 19, 1985): 79-85.

6. United Nations, World Economic Survey 1986 , p. 85.

7. Ibid., p. 49.

8. World Bank, World Development Report 1986 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986), p. 44. The high projection was 7.1 percent annual growth for exports, 7.7 percent for imports; the low projection was 3.2 percent for exports, 3.4 percent for imports:

9. United Nations, World Economic Survey 1986 , p. 4. Moreover, a substantial debt write-off would be necessary to stimulate real growth in the largest debtors.

10. Wall Street Journal , August 21, 1985, p. 28.

11. Both quotes are from Wall Street Journal , August 7, 1986, p. 22.

12. IMF Survey (June 30, 1986): 205. See also Financial Times (London), October 28, 1985, p. 8A; Wall Street Journal , January 23, 1986; Carol T. Loomis, "Why Baker's Debt Plan Won't Work," Fortune (December 23, 1985): 98-102.

13. World Bank, World Development Report 1986 , pp. 125-36. The only major LDC recipients of foreign investment that are not among the top debtors are Hong Kong and Singapore.

14. See Table 12; and IMF, World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund (Washington, D.C.: IMF, 1986), p. 229.

15. Inter-American Development Bank, Economic and Social Progress in Latin America, 1985 Report — External Debt: Crisis and Adjustment (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank, 1985), p. 22. The seven are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela.

16. For more detailed treatment of the origins of the debt crisis, see Cheryl Payer, The Debt Trap: The International Monetary Fund and the Third World (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1974); and John Cavanagh, Fantu Cheru, Carole Collins, Cameron Duncan, and Dominic Ntube, From Debt to Development: Alternatives to the International Debt Crisis (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Policy Studies, 1985).

17. IMF, Annual Report of the Executive Board for the Financial Year Ended April 30, 1985 (Washington, D,C.: IMF, 1985), p. 64.

18. Extended fired facilities are repaid five to ten years after drawing.

19. Net flows were $5.7 billion in 1981 and in 1982, and $4.2 billion in 1984 (IMF, International Financial Statistics , various issues).

20. These were Vietnam, Cambodia, Liberia, Sudan, Guyana, and Peru.

21. See Willy Brandt, Arms and Hunger (New York: Pantheon Books, 1986).

22. The facility was financed by reflows to the IMF from a trust fund set up for low-income LDCs in 1976. That trust fund was financed through the sale of some of the IMF's gold holdings. See ''The IMF's Structural Adjustment Facility," Finance and Development 23 (June 1986): 39.

23. Ibid.

24. Wall Street Journal , July 25, 1985, p. 24.

25. "World Bank Tries Harder," The Banker (January 1983): 66; ''World Bank Announced New Co-Financing Instruments," Bank News Release (January 13, 1983); World Bank, Co-Financing , 1983, pp. 11-13 and 20-21, table 2.

26. See "Brief Notes: International Finance ," IMF Survey , July 15, 1985; Wall Street Journal , July 1, 1985; Katherine Roberts and Peter Kornbluh, "U.S. Bolsters Chile Despite Repression," San Jose Mercury News , July 21, 1985.

27. During fiscal years 1984 and 1985, the World Bank used the program to disburse an additional sum of $4.5 billion to 44 recipient countries. See A. W. Clausen, Address to Board of Governors, Seoul, Korea, October 8, 1985 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1985), p. 10.

28. Quoted in Robert E. Wood, "The Aid Regime and International Debt: Crisis and Structural Adjustment," Development and Change 16 (April 1985): 194.

29. For details of MIGA's operations, see "The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency: An Update," Finance and Development 22; (December 1985): 54.

30. As early as July 1985, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker testified to the House Banking Committee that the World Banks role in debtor countries "is likely to be more critical" as the IMF role diminishes. Volcker cited Colombia as an example, where the Bank was the major multilateral lender (with a SAL), but where the IMF did not have a standby arrangement ( Washington Post , July 31, 1985).

31. Data provided by World Bank official, July 1986.

32. "Washington's Gambit to Head Off a Debtor Revolt," Business Week (September 23, 1985): 35.

33. See Stanley Please, The Hobbled Giant: Essays on the World Bank (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1984), p. 41.

34. Elliot Berg and Alan Batchelder, "Structural Adjustment Lending: A Critical View," paper prepared by Elliot Berg Associates of Alexandria, Virginia, for World Bank, Country Policy Department, January 1985, p. 15.

35. World Bank, Sector Adjustment Lending , World Bank News Special Report, April 1986, p. 2.

36. Paragraph based on ibid., pp. 1-13; quoted matter on p. 9.

37. Washington Post , April 14, 1986; Time (July 14, 1986): 45.

38. Quoted in Wall Street Journal , July 3, 1986, p. 21. Conable was hand-picked by Treasury Secretary James Baker.

39. Jaime Ongpin, minister of finance of the Philippines, "Briefing Notes on the Philippine Economy (After 30 Days in Office)," March 1986, p. 3. This dismal list ends with an ironic final item: "business confidence returning."

40. Remarks delivered by Jaime Ongpin, minister of finance of the Philippines, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., April 7, 1986, p. 2. Two American academics put it similarly in Foreign Affairs : "The root causes [of economic decline] lay in the mismanagement of macroeconomic policy and the resultant decline in industrial efficiency. . .. The heart of the problem was the complete politicization of entrepreneurship" (Carl Landé and Richard Hooley, "Aquino Takes Charge," Foreign Affairs [Summer 1986]: 1089-90). See also Paul Gigot, ''Crony Capitalism Slaps Philippines," Asian Wall Street Journal , November 8, 1983.

41. It should be noted that in 1982 the Philippines had already suffered a trade deficit of $2.6 billion. For an excellent analysis of this period, see Joel Rocamora, "The Marcos Dictatorship, the IMF and the Philippine Economic Crisis," in Sourcebook on the Philippine Crisis , ed. Joel Rocamora (Berkeley, Calif.: Philippine Resource Center, n.d.), p. 3.

42. For Ongpin's views in 1984, see T. K. Seshadri, "Manila Awaits Its Moment of Truth," Asian Finance (May 15, 1984).

43. Roy Rowan, "Business Talks Tough to Marcos," Fortune (November 28, 1983): 146.

44. Norman Peagam, "The Spectre That Haunts Marcos," Euromoney (April 1984): 51. A superb three-part series broke the capital-flight story: Peter Carey, Katherine Ellison, and Lewis M. Simons, "Hidden Billions: The Draining of the Philippines," San Jose Mercury News , June 23, 24, 25, 1985. See also follow-up articles of June 28 and October 27, 1985.

45. Phil Bronstein, "U.S. Seeks to Hold Marcos at Arm's Length," San Francisco Examiner , September 15, 1985.

46. Senator Paul Laxalt, "My Conversations with Ferdinand Marcos: A Lesson in Personal Diplomacy" Policy Review (Summer 1986): 205.

47. To fill in this brief summary of events in the Philippines from Benigno Aquino's assassination to Cory Aquino's victory, see Walden Bello, "Benigno Aquino: Between Dictatorship and Revolution in the Philippines," Third World Quarterly 6 (April 1984): 283-309; Walden Bello, "Philippines in Turmoil," Intervention I (1985): 26-33; Walden Bello, "Edging Toward the Quagmire: The United States and the Philippine Crisis,'' World Policy Journal 3 (Winter 1985): 29-58; A. James McGregor, Crisis in the Philippines — A Threat to U.S. Interests (Washington: Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1984); U.S. Congress, Senate, Select Committee on Intelligence, The Philippines: A Situation Report , Staff Report, 99th Cong., 1st sess., October 31, 1985; Marjorie Niehaus, Philippine Internal Conditions: Consequences of the Aquino Assassination , U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Issue Brief IB84114-update, November 19, 1985; Daniel B. Schirmer and Stephen Rosskamm Shalom, eds., The Philippines Reader: A History, of Colonialism, Neocolonialism, Dictatorship, and Resistance (Boston: South End Press, 1987); Robert Shaplen, ''A Reporter at Large: From Marcos to Aquino," New Yorker (August 25, 1986): 33-73 and (September 1, 1986): 36-64; Raymond Bonner, Waltzing with a Dictator: The Marcoses and the Making of Arnerican Policy (New York: Times Books, 1987).

48. "Under Attack—And Caught in a Dilemma," Far Eastern Economic Review (October 10, 1985): 77. The analysis of the Philippines as guinea pig was widespread in the country after a Philippine edition of Development Debacle appeared in late 1982 (Walden Bello et al., Development Debacle: The World Bank in the Philippines [San Francisco: Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1982]).

49. See Washington Post , October 14, 1984. It took another five months for the Philippines to reach agreement on the rest of the rescue package—a $10 billion rescheduling package with 483 Creditor banks, finally signed in May 1985.

50. World Bank, Economic Adjustment Policies in the Philippines , Background Paper Prepared for the Meeting of the Consultative Group of the Philippines to be Held in Paris in July 1983, May 25, 1983, p. 9.

51. Ibid., p. 11.

52. United States, Agency for International Development, "An Overview of the Philippine Structural Adjustment Program" (Manila: U.S. AID, February 1984), p. 6.

53. Ibid., p. 10.

54. See Nayan Chanda, " Vote of No Confidence," Far Eastern Economic Review (September 13, 1984): 16.

55. A good review of SAL programs as of July 1983 is provided in World Bank, Economic Adjustment Policies in the Philippines .

56 . IMF, Philippines — Staft Report for the Article IV Consultation , EBS/84/117, May 29, 1984, p. 45.

57. Interview with World Bank official (anonymity requested), Washington, D.C., July 10, 1986.

58. "EPZA Goes to Cavite," Metro-Manila Times , January 27, 1986.

59. See Business Day (Manila), March 27, 1986, p. 3.

60. Percentages measured in value terms ( Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 145 [August 31, 1984]: 2).

61. These figures refer to value of exports (IMF, Philippines: Recent Economic Developments , SM/84/132, June 8, 1984, p. 113).

62. In value terms using 1972 constant prices. Statistics provided by Philippine Ministry of Trade and Industry, June 1986.

63. Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 182 (March 15, 1986): 1, based on statistics from the Central Bank of the Philippines and the National Census and Statistics Office.

64. Bernardo Villegas, "The Philippines in 1985: Rolling with the Political Punches," Asian Survey 26 (February 1986): 135-36.

65. Statistics provided by the Philippine Ministry of Trade and Industry, June 1986.

66. Estimates vary. See Jose Gonzaga, "The Turn of the Screw," Far Eastern Economic Review (February 9, 1984): 54-55; Journal of Commerce , March 27, 1985, p. 11A; and Los Angeles Times , August 23, 1985.

67. Jose Gonzaga, "Inflation Turns Downward," Far Eastern Economic Review (May 9, 1985): 86.

68. Reported in Business Day (Manila), January 13, 1984.

69. Data provided by World Bank official, July 1985.

70. Statistics from the Philippine Export Processing Zone Authority, various years.

71. For a complete listing, see Manila Times , January 27, 1986.

72. Manila Bulletin , June 9, 1986, p. 17.

73. See "Why Marcos Can't Last Much Longer," Business Week (February 24, 1986): 47.

74. Among those to exercise this option in 1985 were Del Monte, Procter and Gamble, Coca-Cola, Bayer, Avon, and McDonald's. See Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 169 (August 31, 1985): 6.

75. World Bank, "Aide-Mémoire," minutes of meetings between World Bank and Philippine Government ministers, March 17-24, 1986, p. 2.

76. Interview with World Bank official (anonymity requested), Washington, D.C., August 1986.

77. World Bank, The Role of Industry in Economic Recovery in the Philippines , June 1986, p. 27. The Bank targeted five areas for its new industrial restructuring: trade liberalization, industrial investment incentives, industry financing, export policies, and technology policy.

78. Ibid., p. 43.

79. Data provided by Central Bank, June 1986; "Under Attack—And Caught in a Dilemma," Far Eastern Economic Review (October 10, 1986): 78; Ibon Databank, The Philippine Financial System — A Primer (Manila: Ibon Databank, 1983), p. 134.

80. Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 170 (September 15, 1985): 4.

81. Jose Galang, "After All That Drama, Look for Useful Reform," Far Eastern Economic Review (May 8, 1986): 84.

82. Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 170 (September 15, 1985): 2-3.

83. Asian Wall Street Journal , January 8, 1984, p. 3. By mid-1985, a Manila banker would predict, "Over time, I'd expect the number of banks here to shrink from 35 to 20" (Robert Winder, "The Philippine Way to Reschedule," Euromoney [July 1985]:84).

84. Guy Sacerdoti, "Bank Takeover Launches Crusade," Far Eastern Economic Review (September 6, 1984): 10; and Winder, "The Philippine Way to Reschedule," p. 84.

85. Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 170 (September 15, 1985): 3.

86. World Bank, "Aide-Mémoire," March 17-24, 1986, p. 2. See also Galang, "After All That Drama, Look for Useful Reform," pp. 84-86.

87. Interview with World Bank official (anonymity requested), Washington, D.C., August 1986. See also World. Bank, "Aide-Mémoire," March 17-24, 1986, for conversation with Fernandez.

88. John E. Lind, Philippine Debt to Foreign Banks (San Francisco: Northern California Interfaith Committee on Corporate Responsibility, 1984), pp. 12-13.

89. Ibid., p: 13.

90. Ibid., p. 12.

91. Washington Post , August 6, 1984, p. 30. Ongpin claimed that $6 to $7 billion of the country's foreign debt Was wasted on the cronies. Ironically, in April 1986, evidence emerged that Ongpin's Benguet Corporation had been owned by Imelda Marcos's brother, crony Benjamin "Kokoy" Romualdez. See Wall Street Journal , April 4, 1986.

92. Peter Evans, "State, Local and Multinational Capital in Brazil: Prospects for Stability of the 'Triple Alliance' in the Eighties," in Latin America in the World Economy: New Perspectives , ed. Diana Tussie (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983), p. 140.

93. He was referring to crony bailouts as well as to the falsification of Central Bank data (Wall Street Journal , January 23, 1984, p. 25).

94. Asian Wall Street Journal , December 7, 1983, p. 1.

95. Financial Times (London), July 4, 1984.

96. Remarks of Jose Concepcion, minister of trade and industry of the Philippines, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., June 20, 1986.

97. American Express converted $26 million of its loans for the Bataan nuclear power plant into Interbank equity (Leo Gonzaga, "Ex-Herdis Banks Well," Far Eastern Economic Review [December 13, 1984]: 87; Guy Sacerdoti, "Long-Term Deposits," Far Eastern Economic Review [May 8, 1986]: 141).

98. A 1984 International Labour Organization study on Asian countries found a strong correlation between a country's reliance on exports and the amount of damage that a deep recession in the world economy will inflict on it. See United Nations, International Labour Office, "Developing Asia Hit Where It Really Hurts," special press kit, December 1984.

99. Hollis Chenery et al., Redistribution with Growth (London: Oxford University Press, 1974), p. 17.

100. Thorough analyses of this "poverty crusade" are found in Robert L. Ayres, Banking on the Poor: The World Bank and World Poverty (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press in cooperation with the Overseas Development Council, 1983); and Sheldon Annis, "The Shifting Grounds of Poverty Lending at the World Bank," in Between Two Worlds: The World Bank's Next Decade , ed. Richard E. Feinberg (Washington: Overseas Development Council, 1986), pp. 87-109. Ayres singles out two problems: insufficient attention by the Bank to the factors that generate poverty, and lack of a sophisticated political theory for implementing the proposed distributional redirections (pp. 74-80). Both an excellent overview of participatory development and an extensive bibliography of development literature are found in Guy Gran, Development by People (New York: Praeger, 1983).

101. World Bank, Sector Adjustment Lending , p. 3.

102. Even the nationalist Philippine National Economic Protectionism Association is quite critical of the 1950s import-substitution industrialization in the Philippines: ''The import substitution period of the 1950s was characterized by massive inflow of foreign investment. ... Filipino savings were being spent more on consumer goods and services rather than being reinvested. ... Filipino businessmen were looking into the foreign markets rather than developing the local market" (Jorge V. Sibal, "The History of NEPA Is the History of Economic Nationalism," Pilipino Muna: Bulletin of the National Economic Protectionism Association [Manila], no. 17 [May 1986]: 4). For more on import-substitution strategies, see Raul Prebisch, The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems , United Nations, Economic Commission on Latin America, E/CN. 12/89/ Rev. 1, 1950; Albert O. Hirschman, The Strategy of Economic Development (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1958).

103. Albert O. Hirschman, "The Rise and Decline of Development Economics," in The Theory and Experience of Economic Development , ed. Mark Gersovitz, Carlos F. Díaz-Alejandro, Gustav Ranis, and Mark R, Rosenweig (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982), p. 372.

104. Paul Streeten, Development Perspectives (London: Macmillan, 1981), p. 91.

105. Marc Nerfin, ed., Another Development: Approaches and Strategies (Uppsala: Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation, 1977); William H. Matthews, ed., Outer Limits and Human Needs: Resource and Environmental Issues of Development Strategies (Uppsala: Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation, 1976); "What Now? Another Development," 1975 Dag Hammarskjöld Report, Development Dialogue , no. 1-2 (1975).

106. "Another Development with Women? Development Dialogue , no. 1-2 (1982).

107. Carlos Díaz-Alejandro, "Delinking North and South: Unshackled or Unhinged?" in Rich and Poor Nations in the World Economy , ed. Albert Fishlow, Council on Foreign Relations 1980s Project (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978), pp. 87-162.

108. Organization of African Unity, Lagos Plan of Action for the Economic Development of Africa, 1980-2000 (Geneva: International Institute for Labour Studies, 1981). See also Timothy M. Shaw, "Debates About Africa's Future: The Brandt, World Bank and Lagos Plan Blueprints," Third World Quarterly 5 (April 1983): 330-44.

109. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, Richard Jolly, and Frances Stewart, eds., Adjustment with a Human Face: Protecting the Vulnerable and Prompting Growth , A Study by UNICEF (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987). Also see Bernadette Orr, "Adjustment with a Human Face," International Health News (National Council of International Health) 7 (June 1986): 3, 9, and (August 1986): 5, 11; and Khadija Haq and Uner Kirdar, eds., Human Development: The Neglected Dimension , Papers Prepared for the Istanbul Roundtable on Development: The Human Dimension, September 2-4, 1985 (Islamabad: North South Roundtable, 1986); North South Roundtable and UNDP Development Study Programme, Salzburg Statement on Adjustment and Growth with Human Development, 7-9 September 1986 (Islamabad: North South Roundtable; New York: UNDP, 1986).

110. Albert Fishlow, "The State of Latin American Economics," chapter 5 in Inter-American Development Bank, Economic and Social Progress in Latin America, 1985 Report — External Debt: Crisis and Adjustment , 1985, pp. 123-48.

111. Bolivia also initiated its own program along these lines. See Inter-American Development Bank, Economic and Social Progress in Latin America, 1985 Report — External Debt: Crisis and Adjustment , 1985; and United Nations, World Economic Survey 1986 , p. 23.

112. Alvin Levie, Nicaragua: The People Speak (South Hadley, Mass.: Bergin and Garvey, 1985); George Black, Triumph of the People: The Sandinista Revolution in Nicaragua (London: Zed Press, 1982).

113. Florian A. Alburo et al., Economic Recovery and Long-Run Growth: Agenda for Reforms (Manila: Philippine Institute for Development Studies, May 1, 1986); and Philippines (Republic), National Economic and Development Authority, "Policy Agenda for People-Powered Development," draft [1986].

114. "Prescriptions for 'People-Powered' Development," Ibon Facts and Figures , no. 191 (July 31, 1986).

115. One of the better World Bank studies, Poverty and Hunger: Issues and Options for Food Security in Developing Countries (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1986), admits what many of its critics have long argued and Bank hierarchy has long disclaimed: hunger is partially rooted in distribution and poverty problems. The study fails, however, to make the connection between the World Bank's emphasis on cash crops for exports and the incidence of hunger.