Regulatory Choices A Perspective on Developments in Energy Policy "d0e28389"

REFERENCES

California Energy Commission (1980a). "Renewables and Alternative Technologies Synopsis, Staff Draft," P500-80-012, Sacramento.

California Energy Commission (1980b). Solar/Wind Programs, Final Environmental Impact Report . P700-80-005.

California Energy Commission (1983). "California's Solar, Wind, and Conservation Tax Credits, Draft Report." Tax Credit Committee, P103-83-001.

California Energy Commission (1986a). Results From the Wind Project Performance Reporting System, 1985 Annual Report , P500-86-013.

California Energy Commission (1986b). Solar and Wind Technology Tax Incentive Impact Analysis , Report Prepared by Polydyne, Inc. P500-86-010.

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California Energy Commission (1988). Forecasts of Annual Capacities of the Supply of Electricity Likely to be Available from Quailing Facilities Not Subject to CEC Jurisdiction , Prepared by Regional Economic Research, Inc.

Energy Information Administration (1987). Monthly Energy Review , October. DOE/EIA-0035(87/10).

EPRI Journal (1980). "Going With the Wind," Vol. 5, No. 2, March, pp. 6-18.

EPRI Journal (1984). "Wind Power: A Question of Scale," Vol. 9, No. 4, May, pp. 6-16.

Hirsh, E., L. Briefly, and V. Schwent (1981). "A Guide to Financial Assistance for Wind Energy," Sacramento: California Energy Commission.

Kahn, E. (1979). "Wind and Solar With Conventional Technology," Annual Review of Energy , Vol. 4, pp. 313-352, Palo Alto, Calif.: Annual Reviews, Inc.

Katzman, M. T. (1984). Solar and Wind Energy An Economic Evaluation of Current and Future Technologies . Rowman and Allanheld.

Merriam, M. F. (1986). "Wind Electricity for California: Costs and Benefits," Universitywide Energy Research Group Working Paper No. UER-164, Berkeley: University of California.

Office of Technology Assessment (1985). New Electric Power Technologies: Problems and Prospects for the 1990s , Washington, D.C.: OTA-E-246.

Smith, D. R. (1987). "The Wind Farms of the Altamont Pass Area," Annual Review of Energy , Vol. 12, pp. 145-183, Palo Alto, Calif: Annual Reviews, Inc.

Solar Energy Research Institute (1981). A New Prosperity, Building a Sustainable Future, The SERI Solar/Conservation Study. Andover, Mass.: Brick House Publishing.

Tabors, R. D., S. Finger, and A. J. Cox (1981). "Economic Operation of a Distributed Power System Within an Electric Utility," IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems , Vol. PAS—100. No. 9.

Van Kuiken, J. C. (1980). "Reliability, Energy, and Cost Effects of Wind-Powered Generation Integrated With a Conventional Generating System," Argonne, Ill.: Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/AA-17.

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TABLE 9.1 Research and Development Nominal Expenditures on Wind Energy (FY 1973-1985)
	Expenditure ($ in millions)	% of Total
Intermediate and Large Turbines	202.1	51.7
Small Turbines	60.0	15.3
Darrieus Turbines	22.3	5.7
Generic^a	106.8	27.3
NOTE: Includes policy studies, wind resource assessments and fundamental engineering studies.

TABLE 9.2 Development of the California Wind Industry
	Before 1982	1982	1983	1984	1985
Cumulative Number of Turbines	144	1,300	3,800	8,100	13,500
Investment/Year ($ In Millions)	21	139	326	680	1,100
Installed Capacity (MW)	7	71	239	583	1,121
Energy Generated (MWh/yr)	0	6	51	195	661

TABLE 9.3 Economic and Private Costs of Electricity from Wind as a Function of Wind Turbine Cost (at 25% Capacity Factor)
Cost of	Resulting Average Total Cost of Electricity
Wind Turbine ($lkW)	Social Cost (¢/kWh)	Private Cost (¢/kWh)
900	7.5	4.1
1,200	9.1	4.6
1,500	10.8	5.0
1,800	12.3	5.5
2,100	13.9	6.0

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TABLE 9.4 Present Values of Costs and Benefits to Participants in Two Wind Projects (In 1985 Dollars and Cents)
	FloWind 1984 Investment = $41 million	Zond Painted-Hills Investment = $175,000

	Total $	Average	Total $	Average
	(in millions)	(¢/kWh)	(in millions)	(¢/kWh)
Partners' After-Tax Net Benefits	1,750	0.4	66	3.1
Payments by SCE	26,704	7.3	146	7.3
Lost Revenue to Federal Government	7,440	1.9	36	1.7
Lost Revenue to California Government	8,429	2.3	38	1.8
Total Economic Cost	48,298	12.4	219	10.3
Variable Costs	8,775	2.3	49	2.3

TABLE 9.5 Present Value of Benefits to Participants in FloWind Project Under Altered Assumptions For Electricity Prices After 1995
	CEC Estimates of Avoided-Cost Rates	Avoided-Cost Rates From Chapter 7 Assumptions

	Total	Average	Total	Average
	($ in thousands)	(¢/kWh)	($ in thousands)	(¢/kWh)
Partners' After-Tax Net Benefits	- 1,121	-0.29	-264	-0.70
Payments by SCE	23,426	6.41	25,100	6.87

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TABLE 9.6 Cost of a Wind Turbine (at 25% Capacity Factor) to Produce Electricity Competitively with an Oil-Fired Plant
Cost of	Resulting Average Total Cost	Price of Oil ($/barrel) to Produce Electricity at the Same Average Total Cost
Wind Turbine ($/kW)	of Electricity (¢/kWh)	at Heat Rate of 11,300 Btu/kWh	at Heat Rate of 10,300 Btu/kWh
700	6.5	27.49	30.15
800	7.0	29.16	33.18
900	7.5	33.00	36.19
1,000	8.1	35.76	39.21
1,100	8.6	38.50	42.24
1,200	9.1	41.24	45.25
1,300	9.7	44.00	48.28
1,400	10.2	46.75	51.30

TABLE 9.7 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Wind Program Through 1985 Discounted Back to 1980
	Present Value (1986 $ in millions)
Total Costs	1,602
Total Benefits	1,139
Net Benefits	-463
Utility Subsidy	152
Tax Credits	373

TABLE 9.8 Present Value of Net Benefits of Wind Program Through 2020 Discounted Back to 1980
	Present Value of Net Benefits (1986 $in millions)
	Target Price of Wind Turbine = $900/kW		Target Price of Wind Turbine = $700/kW
	Wind Program Starting in		Wind Program Starting in
Expectations on Oil Price Increases from 1980 Levels	1984 (optimal)	1980 (actual)	1982 (optimal)	1980 (actual)
3% per year	667	561	935	895
1% per year	No positive value for any start date	-406	No Positive value for any start date	-139

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9.1. Vertical axis and horizontal axis wind turbines.

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9.2. Windspeed vs. output.

9.3. Major wind farm sites in California.

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