1. Natalie Jaffe, "A Review of Public Opinion Surveys, 1937-76," in Lester M. Salamon, Welfare: The Elusive Consensus—Where We Are, How We Got There, and What's Ahead (New York: Praeger, 1978), pp. 221-28. See also the support for this theme in Martin Anderson, Welfare: The Political Economy of Welfare Reform in the United States (Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution, 1978), chap. 3; James T. Patterson, America's Struggle Against Poverty, 1900-1980 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981). [BACK]

2. See, for example, Friedrich A. Hayek, The Mirage of Social Justice , vol. 2 of Law, Legislation, and Liberty (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976). [BACK]

3. See Lloyd A. Free and Hadley Cantril, The Political Beliefs of continue

Americans: A Study of Public Opinion (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1967). [BACK]

4. C. B. Mcpherson, Democratic Theory: Essays in Retrieval (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1973), chap. 7; or Larry M. Preston, ''Freedom, Markets, and Voluntary Exchange," American Political Science Review 78 (December 1984):959-70. [BACK]

5. Leonard Goodwin, Causes and Cures of Welfare: New Evidence on the Social Psychology of the Poor (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1983); and Leonard Beeghley, Living Poor in America (New York: Praeger, 1983), particularly chaps. 4 and 6. [BACK]

6. See Edward J. Harpham, "Fiscal Crisis and the Politics of Social Security," in Anthony Champagne and Edward J. Harpham, eds., The Attack on the Welfare State (Prospect Heights, Ill.: Waveland, 1984), pp. 9-35; Paul Light, Artful Work: The Politics of Social Security Reform (New York: Random House, 1985), chap. 8. [BACK]

7. Private contributions to well-being in social hazards, particularly for retirement, are growing; see Martin Rein and Lee Rainwater, "From Welfare State to Welfare Society: Some Unresolved Issues in Assessment," Working Paper no. 69, Joint Center for Urban Studies of MIT and Harvard University, May 1981. [BACK]

8. Compare with Bernadyne Weatherford, "The Disability Insurance Program: An administrative Attack on the Welfare State," in Champagne and Harpham, Attack on the Welfare State , pp. 37-60, especially pp. 43-49. [BACK]

9. This practice would create an annual income plateau for earnings from $6,700 up to as much as $10,300: $4,500 (maximum annual benefit) - $900 (minimum annual benefit) = $3,600 (plateau range), and $6,700 + $3,600 = $10,300 or the upper limit of the plateau. The plateau would be narrower for households with two children ($2,880, or from $6,700 to $9,580) and one child ($1,680, or from $6,700 to $8,380). And these narrower plateaus might provide some disincentives for new births. [BACK]

10. This tendency is suggested by Michael C. Keeley, "Migration," in Philip K. Robins et al., eds., A Guaranteed Annual Income: Evidence From a Social Experiment (New York: Academic Press, 1980), pp. 241-62. [BACK]

11. A far broader set of encouraging consequences is suggested in Harold L. Wilensky, "Nothing Fails Like Success: The Evaluation-Research Industry and Labor Market Policy," Reprint no. 464, Institute of Industrial Relations, University of California, Berkeley, 1985. [BACK]

12. See Judy Gueron, "The Supported Work Experiment," in Eli Ginzberg, ed., Employing the Unemployed (New York: Basic Books, continue

1980), pp. 73-93; and James Q. Wilson, Thinking About Crime , rev. ed. (New York: Basic Books, 1983). [BACK]

13. For a short statement on these trends, see Nathan H. Schwartz, "Reagan's Housing Policies," in Champagne and Harpham, Attack on the Welfare State , pp. 149-64, particularly pp. 160-61. [BACK]

14. David A. Snow, Susan G. Baker, Leon Anderson, and Michael Martin, "The Myth of Pervasive Mental Illness Among the Homeless," Social Problems 33 (June 1986):407-23. [BACK]

15. See Mark Bendick, Jr., "Vouchers Versus Income Versus Service," Journal of Social Policy 11 (July 1982):365-77. [BACK]

16. Placing children from disadvantaged households in preschool programs may have some important long-term benefits for their educational and occupational success; see Lawrence J. Schwienhart and Jeffrey L. Koshel, "Policy Options for Preschool Programs," in High Scope Early Childhood Policy Papers (Ypsilanti, Mich.: High Scope Educational Research Foundation, 1986). [BACK]

17. Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1970). [BACK]

18. Milton and Rose Friedman, Free to Choose: A Personal Statement (New York: Avon, 1979), especially pp. 110-15. [BACK]

19. See Alain Enthoven, Health Plan: The Only Practical Solution to the Soaring Cost of Medical Care (Menlo Park, Calif.: Addison-Wesley, 1979), pp. 121-23. [BACK]

20. See Light, Artful Work , chap. 8. [BACK]

21. On this point see Light, Artful Work , p. 104. [BACK]

22. See Wilensky, "Nothing Fails Like Success"; Patterson, America's Struggle , chap. 4; Gueron, "Supported Work Experiment"; and Wilson, Thinking About Crime . [BACK]

23. Samuel P. Huntington, American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981), especially chap. 4. [BACK]

24. The electorate does not seem to share this mood. See Seymour Martin Lipset, "Beyond 1984: The Anomalies of American Politics," PS 19 (Spring 1986):222-36. [BACK]

25. Hugh Heclo, "Toward a New Welfare State," in Peter Flora and Arnold J. Heidenheimer, eds., The Development of Welfare States in Europe and America (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1981), especially pp. 386-87. [BACK]

26. Compare with Lester C. Thurow, The Zero-Sum Society: Distribution and the Possibilities of Economic Change (New York: Basic Books, 1980); Richard Rose and Guy Peters, Can Government Go Bankrupt? (New York: Basic Books, 1978). break [BACK]

27. For a clear example of the problems in the case of social programs as well as techniques for implementing short cuts, see Light, Artful Work , p. 74; Beth C. Fuchs and John F. Hoadley, "Reflections from Inside the Beltway: How Congress and the President Grapple with Health Policy," PS 20 (Spring 1987):212-20. [BACK]

28. See Charles Lockhart, "Institutional Innovation and Cultural Change: The Case of American Social Security," paper presented at the 1985 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New Orleans, August 31; Light, Artful Work , chap. 7. [BACK]

29. On the impact of these cataclysms, compare Lewis J. Edinger, Politics in Germany: Attitudes and Processes (Boston: Little, Brown, 1968), p. 72, with his Politics in West Germany , 2d ed. (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977), p. 46. [BACK]

30. Paul Starr, The Social Transformation of American Medicine: The Rise of a Sovereign Profession and the Making of a Vast Industry (New York: Basic Books, 1982), pp. 289, 310-11. [BACK]

31. Theodore Marmor, The Politics of Medicare (Chicago: Aldine, 1970), pp. 164-66; and Mary Weaver, "The Food Stamp Program: A Very Expensive Orphan," in Champagne and Harpham, Attack on the Welfare State , pp. 111-29. break [BACK]