1. Natalie Jaffe, "A Review of Public Opinion Surveys, 1937-76," in Lester M. Salamon, Welfare: The Elusive Consensus—Where We Are, How We Got There, and What's Ahead (New York: Praeger, 1978), pp. 221-28. See also the support for this theme in Martin Anderson, Welfare: The Political Economy of Welfare Reform in the United States (Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution, 1978), chap. 3; James T. Patterson, America's Struggle Against Poverty, 1900-1980 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981).

2. See, for example, Friedrich A. Hayek, The Mirage of Social Justice , vol. 2 of Law, Legislation, and Liberty (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976).

3. See Lloyd A. Free and Hadley Cantril, The Political Beliefs of continue

Americans: A Study of Public Opinion (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1967).

4. C. B. Mcpherson, Democratic Theory: Essays in Retrieval (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1973), chap. 7; or Larry M. Preston, ''Freedom, Markets, and Voluntary Exchange," American Political Science Review 78 (December 1984):959-70.

5. Leonard Goodwin, Causes and Cures of Welfare: New Evidence on the Social Psychology of the Poor (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1983); and Leonard Beeghley, Living Poor in America (New York: Praeger, 1983), particularly chaps. 4 and 6.

6. See Edward J. Harpham, "Fiscal Crisis and the Politics of Social Security," in Anthony Champagne and Edward J. Harpham, eds., The Attack on the Welfare State (Prospect Heights, Ill.: Waveland, 1984), pp. 9-35; Paul Light, Artful Work: The Politics of Social Security Reform (New York: Random House, 1985), chap. 8.

7. Private contributions to well-being in social hazards, particularly for retirement, are growing; see Martin Rein and Lee Rainwater, "From Welfare State to Welfare Society: Some Unresolved Issues in Assessment," Working Paper no. 69, Joint Center for Urban Studies of MIT and Harvard University, May 1981.

8. Compare with Bernadyne Weatherford, "The Disability Insurance Program: An administrative Attack on the Welfare State," in Champagne and Harpham, Attack on the Welfare State , pp. 37-60, especially pp. 43-49.

9. This practice would create an annual income plateau for earnings from $6,700 up to as much as $10,300: $4,500 (maximum annual benefit) - $900 (minimum annual benefit) = $3,600 (plateau range), and $6,700 + $3,600 = $10,300 or the upper limit of the plateau. The plateau would be narrower for households with two children ($2,880, or from $6,700 to $9,580) and one child ($1,680, or from $6,700 to $8,380). And these narrower plateaus might provide some disincentives for new births.

10. This tendency is suggested by Michael C. Keeley, "Migration," in Philip K. Robins et al., eds., A Guaranteed Annual Income: Evidence From a Social Experiment (New York: Academic Press, 1980), pp. 241-62.

11. A far broader set of encouraging consequences is suggested in Harold L. Wilensky, "Nothing Fails Like Success: The Evaluation-Research Industry and Labor Market Policy," Reprint no. 464, Institute of Industrial Relations, University of California, Berkeley, 1985.

12. See Judy Gueron, "The Supported Work Experiment," in Eli Ginzberg, ed., Employing the Unemployed (New York: Basic Books, continue

1980), pp. 73-93; and James Q. Wilson, Thinking About Crime , rev. ed. (New York: Basic Books, 1983).

13. For a short statement on these trends, see Nathan H. Schwartz, "Reagan's Housing Policies," in Champagne and Harpham, Attack on the Welfare State , pp. 149-64, particularly pp. 160-61.

14. David A. Snow, Susan G. Baker, Leon Anderson, and Michael Martin, "The Myth of Pervasive Mental Illness Among the Homeless," Social Problems 33 (June 1986):407-23.

15. See Mark Bendick, Jr., "Vouchers Versus Income Versus Service," Journal of Social Policy 11 (July 1982):365-77.

16. Placing children from disadvantaged households in preschool programs may have some important long-term benefits for their educational and occupational success; see Lawrence J. Schwienhart and Jeffrey L. Koshel, "Policy Options for Preschool Programs," in High Scope Early Childhood Policy Papers (Ypsilanti, Mich.: High Scope Educational Research Foundation, 1986).

17. Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1970).

18. Milton and Rose Friedman, Free to Choose: A Personal Statement (New York: Avon, 1979), especially pp. 110-15.

19. See Alain Enthoven, Health Plan: The Only Practical Solution to the Soaring Cost of Medical Care (Menlo Park, Calif.: Addison-Wesley, 1979), pp. 121-23.

20. See Light, Artful Work , chap. 8.

21. On this point see Light, Artful Work , p. 104.

22. See Wilensky, "Nothing Fails Like Success"; Patterson, America's Struggle , chap. 4; Gueron, "Supported Work Experiment"; and Wilson, Thinking About Crime .

23. Samuel P. Huntington, American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981), especially chap. 4.

24. The electorate does not seem to share this mood. See Seymour Martin Lipset, "Beyond 1984: The Anomalies of American Politics," PS 19 (Spring 1986):222-36.

25. Hugh Heclo, "Toward a New Welfare State," in Peter Flora and Arnold J. Heidenheimer, eds., The Development of Welfare States in Europe and America (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1981), especially pp. 386-87.

26. Compare with Lester C. Thurow, The Zero-Sum Society: Distribution and the Possibilities of Economic Change (New York: Basic Books, 1980); Richard Rose and Guy Peters, Can Government Go Bankrupt? (New York: Basic Books, 1978). break

27. For a clear example of the problems in the case of social programs as well as techniques for implementing short cuts, see Light, Artful Work , p. 74; Beth C. Fuchs and John F. Hoadley, "Reflections from Inside the Beltway: How Congress and the President Grapple with Health Policy," PS 20 (Spring 1987):212-20.

28. See Charles Lockhart, "Institutional Innovation and Cultural Change: The Case of American Social Security," paper presented at the 1985 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New Orleans, August 31; Light, Artful Work , chap. 7.

29. On the impact of these cataclysms, compare Lewis J. Edinger, Politics in Germany: Attitudes and Processes (Boston: Little, Brown, 1968), p. 72, with his Politics in West Germany , 2d ed. (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977), p. 46.

30. Paul Starr, The Social Transformation of American Medicine: The Rise of a Sovereign Profession and the Making of a Vast Industry (New York: Basic Books, 1982), pp. 289, 310-11.

31. Theodore Marmor, The Politics of Medicare (Chicago: Aldine, 1970), pp. 164-66; and Mary Weaver, "The Food Stamp Program: A Very Expensive Orphan," in Champagne and Harpham, Attack on the Welfare State , pp. 111-29. break